http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/3.page JForum - http://www.jforum.net GQRR poll showed Corzine trailing Christie only 35% to 40%, with a third party independent candidate (Dagett) scoring a huge 10%. There are a few important caveats to this poll, however: 1) The poll was conducted by a Democratic organization in which James Carville is involved*... Therefore this partisan poll should be given less weight in terms of accuracy. An independent poll published the same week showed Christie at 51%, and Corzine at 42%... 2) The total for a virtually unknown third-party candidate seems very inflated. No other polls that we can see on pollster.com have credited this pretty drab and uninteresting character with any effective presence in the race. 3) However you slice it, even the most Corzine-sympathetic polls show him mired in the mid-30’s. This is a disaster zone for an incumbent Governor in a blue state less than three months before election day. Exit question : Can this this race materializes into a real three-way race with the independent building momentum? If so, could this give Corzine a chance to sneak through? *The survey was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Stan Greenberg and James Carville’s organization "Democracy Corps". ]]> http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#40927 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#40927 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#40932 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#40932 GMT New Jersey voters are sick of the corruption pandemic, and right now, it seems as if the Republican, the crusading former U.S. Attorney, Chris Christie, is tied up in more questionable activities than the Democratic governor, Jon Corzine. Corzine isn’t popular, but the race is shifting from being a referendum on his performance to a choice between the devil they know and the one they’re learning more about. http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/08/campaigns_of_2009_and_2010_some_talking_points.php My emphasis, of course. And also a thing to remember: NJ is stuck in the web of a ferocious unionist democratic GOTV machine that the GOP can't match. My money is on Corzine. Discuss! * There is also a third poll with a very small number of likely voters that gives the lead to Corzine.]]> http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41001 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41001 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41002 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41002 GMT With the leaners, 50% will vote for Christie and 42% for Corzine. That eight-point edge for Christie is down from 13 points in early August and 12 points in early July. --->>> Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. The trend of those leaners is particularly interesting. In July, the leaners were moving in Christie’s direction and worked to expand his lead. In early August, the leaners were evenly divided and had no impact on the gap between the candidates. Now, the leaners are moving in Corzine’s direction and are reducing Christie’s lead. Early in any campaign, the number without leaners is generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the number with leaners as the primary indicator of the campaign. While Christie has led in every poll of the race, no Republican has won statewide office in New Jersey since 1997. Democratic candidates often close strong in the fall, and Corzine, who is seeking a second term, is expected to significantly outspend his challenger during the closing months of the campaign. --> Without the leaners, Rasmussen gives to Christie a lead of 11 points: 47% to 36%. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor ***** Also, FWIW: There are over 2.4 million of [unaffiliated and independent voters.] – and that’s more than the 1.7 million registered Democrats or the 1 million registered Republicans. http://richleeonline.wordpress.com/2009/08/27/it-may-not-be-the-economy-after-all/]]> http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41003 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41003 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41011 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41011 GMT @ 52.5/47.5, please? Good lad. I want to buy Corzine and sell Christie. i have more than 300 contracts, and I want way more, yes... I want more. Put more money where your mouth is... Please... What a nice sport you are!]]> http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41013 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41013 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41014 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41014 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41015 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41015 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41016 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41016 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41017 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41017 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41018 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41018 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41019 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41019 GMT "I put more up at 47.5/52.5"  -- Liar! I've actually ordered to buy 30 contracts of Corzine at 52.5; and to sell 30 contracts of Christie at 47.5 soon after I filled your order at 55/45 : YOU DID NOT FILL THEM. There are still there for everybody to see. A coward and a liar you are! *Turns back, disgusted.*]]> http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41020 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41020 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41021 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41021 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41022 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41022 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41028 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41028 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41030 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41030 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41069 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41069 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41070 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41070 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41073 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41073 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41094 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41094 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41147 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41147 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41148 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41148 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41154 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41154 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41155 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41155 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41197 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41197 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41221 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41221 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41222 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41222 GMT Katechon - we had an agreement to buy/sell 100 contracts (arranged via PM) and you have backed out and claim you don't want to do the deal now. Fine, whatever, but thats pretty blatantly hypocritical.  Errr, I waited about 6 hours, and you did not bought. Remember, I'm in Thailand. So I went to sleep. And when I woke up, a Quinnipiac polls showing Christie with a 8 or 10-points lead was all over the place... So it's just normal that I backed out, isn't it? Had you been faster, I would have bought, baby... Good luck anyway!]]> http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41223 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41223 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41224 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41224 GMT http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41225 http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/4173.page#41225 GMT