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Messages posted by Free Market

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There has indeed been a lot of press about this today. Nearly all of it pro intrade/anti big government
I even sent a tip to drudge and he put up a link on his site... strange bedfellows indeed!

If we want to get intrade back the key will be to keep the articles coning next week, next month, and next year...
I agree wholeheartedly with the proposals in the OP. I sincerely hope that everyone contacts every reporter that wrote about Intrade over the past several months to write pieces on this massive government overreach. We also should be reaching out to our local representatives in congress and Senate.

The twitterers among us should also tag articles #Overregulation or #CFTCoverreach or... (I don't love those suggestions, hoping for a better one to be proposed)

It would be helpful if someone could write some form emails to send out to reporters / politicians (I will do this later if i can find the time).

Also, I think we should look for sympathetic lawyers who want to file a class action suit against the CFTC and federal government. This would likely be an extremely expensive legal case so hopefully we can find a firm willing to work on commission for any settlement. As someone who is not a lawyer I am unsure who would have standing or what kind of damages could be claimed but I will be reaching out to some lawyer friends of mine to see if they might be interested in building a case.

Additionally, we should try to piggyback on any poker legalization efforts that might be making their way through congress. It might help to reach out to a lobbying group like the poker players alliance to see if they might be willing to take us under their wing. Lobbying is expensive however it would help if we could start to get some lobbying efforts in place to support the cause

We need a multi pronged approach:
-Media shaming of the CFTC
-Social media campagin against the US Gov
-Legal action against the US Gov
-Individually reaching out to politicians
-Formal lobbying efforts
Who wants to volunteer to write an email to every single author who wrote about intrade in the in the past imploring them to write an article about over reaching federal regulation interfering with the free market by shutting down intrade.

If Intrade is going to be saved we need the media to immediately start shaming these federal regulators!
I could not disagree with MLN any more vehemently.

I love the market maker. I wish every contract had one. I think the volume data that jbeyer provided about the S&P vs. Dow contracts when one had a market maker and the other didn't is astounding and should have ended the conversation there.

To have or to not have a market maker is a question of whether or not to have or not have an active contract altogether. If you don't want to compete against the market maker then don't. But please don't advocate for the death of an entire contract (which is what will happen... does anyone see the S&P monthly markets?) just because you don't feel like you are able to beat the MM.

Only perverse logic can get you to a point where you think that the market maker is bad for the contract because neither the market maker nor anyone else on the planet was willing to offer you a contract at the price that you wanted it at.

A cursory understanding of microeconomics would tell you that you will get better prices and more opportunities in markets where there are more bids, asks, and volume than in one where participants are manually entering all orders. Do I wish that the market maker would sell me contracts at a smaller spread and at a price that I am looking to buy at? Of course I do. But that is an argument for having more market makers, not less.

(note: I am still unconvinced that the market maker in the daily market can't sniff out my orders and move his contracts during the 0.5 second delay before they fill. Jbeyer is infinitely more knowledgeable than me on the API and says it is impossible. Even in the unskewed Dow world where the MM is cheating, I would still rather have a cheating MM than no MM at all.)
Proposed contract language
please make suggestions

Before entering any orders to trade this contract please ensure you read have and understood this DISCLAIMER.

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if Barack Obama is impeached or resigns before December 31, 2013 (also make contracts for December 31, 2014; December 31, 2015; and January 20, 2017)

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if Barack Obama is not impeached and does not resign before December 31, 2013 office.

Expiry will be based on official announcements from President Obama, as reported in three independent and reliable media sources.

Any changes to the result after the market has expired will not be taken into account (Rule 3).

Due to the nature of this market you are obligated to read Rule 4 (Unforeseen Circumstances) and Rule 5 (Time Protection). Intrade may invoke these rules in its absolute discretion if deemed appropriate.

Please contact our Customer Support if you have any questions regarding this market or the interpretation of these market specific rules before you place an order to buy or sell shares.
Contract wording proposal
please provide revisions

Candidates: Include a list of suggestions with an option for "no new person to be confirmed" and an option for "Hillary Clinton to keep the job." Eventually if we get a comprehensive list consider a "none of the above."

Intraders who are interested in these contracts please provide suggested candidates

Category Title: President Obama's Second Term Administration

Contracts: Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, (others?)

Contract title: Obama's next Secretary of State (before July 1, 2013)

Contract Language:

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the person named in the contract is confirmed as Secretary of State before July 1, 2013.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the person named in the contract is not confirmed as Secretary of State before July 1, 2013.

Expiry will be based on the named party being confirmed as Secretary of State by the US Senate by July 1, 2013 as reported in three independent and reliable media sources.

Any changes to the result after the market has expired will not be taken into account (Rule 3).

Due to the nature of this market you are obligated to read Rule 4 (Unforeseen Circumstances) and Rule 5 (Time Protection). Intrade may invoke these rules in its absolute discretion if deemed appropriate.
Fyi, i emailed intrade a few days ago trying to get some new markets listed. Carl emailed me back two days later saying that their staff was swamped with processing cashouts but promised to visit the forums next week.

Others have reported that cashouts are starting to be processed.

While it would be nice if they hired extra staff for this busy week be assured that they are working and will be responding soon

No they don't.

Just sell Dow to finish higher and you are making a bet that the dow will finish lower or that it will finish exactly even.
I disagree.

Just cancel your orders at 3:59 if you don't want to be susceptible to fluctuations at the close.

I like to sell the at the money strike for $9.95 in case something crazy happens like yesterday.
jbeyer wrote:
Did we learn nothing from the election re: gut feeling vs data and facts?


I would give this comment five stars if I could.

That said, there definitely seems to be something fishy going on in the dow markets... I'll look at the API over the weekend if I have the time but I'm not an IT guy so it probably won't mean much to me anyway since I don't have the knowledge to identify a backdoor that could be identifying orders after they are entered but before they are registered on the site.

That said... i am only trading the dow markets out of lack of other options on Intrade. I don't think I can be a long run winner in these contracts and I really hope that we get some new contracts posted soon
I could be wrong. I have not looked at the API nor do I have coding knowledge.

That said, the activity described in my post has occurred so often that it seems highly unlikely to be a coincidence.

Personally, I'd rather that Intrade focus on getting new markets up for me to trade so I don't have to worry about putting my money into the dow contract which is the only contract currently capable of handling enough volume to make trading worthwhile.
I have noticed this too and think it is likely that the market maker's code is able to see an order before it is filled and move his offer away accordingly.

I also have attempted many times to buy at the ask only to have the ask move by $0.05-$0.15 away from my offer. this action of moving away from the offer occurs in milliseconds and it occurs frequently making the best explanation a high frequency trading type script that allows the trader running the script to see orders and react accordingly before they are filled.

I don't know what the advantage of this is... while it sometimes allows the trader to get better prices it also costs him a lot of filled orders at the ask price which theoretically he should be making money on in the long run. Also, it will have the long run impact of drying up volume in these contracts as people get frustrated by the inability to fill orders.
The contract is whether the cabinet official departs.

The contract is not whether the cabinet official announces that he intends to depart.

I believe that the contract language is clear that the person would have to leave their position prior to January 20th 2013 in order for the contract to expire at $10 and have been trading accordingly.

You should email help [at] intrade.com if you would like official confirmation. Usually they respond within a day however they have been really swamped lately so it might take a few days to get a response. If you email them and get confirmation please post it here.
I've also experienced this in the daily dow markets.
SELL SELL SELL

I sold the rest of my GRNH, MJNA, CBIS today up 1300%, 317%, 65%

I am using some of the proceeds to short GNRC which is up 54%

I also bought some Annaly Capital Management (NLY) a REIT which pays a 13% dividend yield. Dividend stocks are tanking because people fear that the much higher tax rates on dividends will make them fall out of favor. That said, with QE3 and maybe QE4 Annaly should continue to provide a huge return on investment for their shareholders and at a multi year low of $14.90 this seems like a good time to get in. Be wary though, the stock's technicals say it is going lower since it broke through all support however the massive yield and excellent track record makes it tougher for it to go much lower

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