Messages posted by: rbecki225

I would still like to see a Palin wins 2012 contract, period. I'm not sure why there are no individual winner contracts. It seems like a lot of people would trade them.

The site has been down from about 8 PM to 11:30 PM on the night of the MASS-SEN election.

When it came back up many of the most active contracts were traded for a minute or two, then paused.

Can we have a contract on whether a health care reform bill passes, regardless of government run?

Palin is now at 26.

You know what's really outrageous? the fact that Obama is President.

Can we have this contract? It appears we have party winner but not individual winner.

Palin's ticked up because *cough**cough* is buying, and there is no liquidity.

*cough**cough* is buying because *cough**cough* wants to, nothing to do with the news.

But *cough**cough* does like the idea that hundreds if not thousands of political junkies watch this crap, it makes him feel like Ben Bernanke.

Intrade has managed to create this myth that even its extremely low liquidity markets respond nimbly to news events.

Eventually the 2012.REP.NOM will have high liquidity, but that won't happen until the actual event gets closer.

I'd like to see some contracts based on general characteristics of Obama's choice for SCOTUS

Nominee a woman
Nominee a Hispanic
Nominee Age > 55
Nominee Age > 50

The Depression contract that has been showing up on the front page recently is 10% decline Q4 2008 to Q4 2009.

The one that is trading very high just says that the quarterly numbers on an annualized basis will sum to 10%. (-0.5, -6.2, -3.3) fulfills this contract, IIRC.

The one with the Depression woman says the quarterly numbers as a whole will lead to a 10% decline. (-10, -10, -10, -10) fulfills this contract.

So #2 is down because it won't happen. Short of a systemic collapse.

How is Obama supposed to have a "mildly good" 4 years? Look at history.

When the Panic of 1837 broke out, Martin Van Buren (Democratic) was President. In 1840, the Whig nominee was victorious.

When the Panic of 1857 broke out, James Buchanan (Democratic) was President. In 1860, the Republican nominee was victorious.

When the Panic of 1873 broke out, Ulysses Grant (Republican) was President. In 1876, the Democratic nominee was victorious, but because Republican troops still controled 3 southern states, they were able to give Hayes a 1 EV win.

When the Panic of 1893 broke out, Grover Cleveland (Democratic) was President. In 1896, the Republican nominee was victorious.

The incumbent party survived the Panic of 1907, but this was a brief affair that was over by 1908.

When the Panic of 1929 broke out, (euphemistically called a "mere depression" by Hoover, who was aware of history and moved aggressively to fight the downturn through stimulus plans, etc.), Hoover (Republican) was President, and in 1932, the Democratic nominee was victorious.

Since 1929, the establishment of the FDIC, banking regulation, and the memory of a generation of the depression, we have not had another panic in 70 years. However, during the Reagan/Bush years the regulations were dismantled and we returned to a 19th century/early 20th century economy. Hence, panics are back.

The panics always last several years, cause mass unemployment, and result in the party out of office winning power. Palin is insanely popular among the religious right for choosing not to abort her Downs syndrome kid, therefore she will win the nomination and be elected President. This is why I am long on Palin. However, someone has been outbidding me, her price has been shooting up unrealistically.

How does this story affect the deposit guarantees announced by Mr Delaney here (https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/3324.page)? If Ireland defaults, its creditors are in trouble, but would it still try to honor bank deposits?

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5733723.ece

FEARS are mounting that Ireland could default on its soaring national debt pile, amid continuing worries about its troubled banking sector.

The cost of buying insurance against Irish government bonds rose to record highs on Friday, having almost tripled in a week. Debt-market investors now rank Ireland as the most troubled economy in Europe.

Simon Johnson, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, called for this weekend’s meeting of G7 finance ministers to put Ireland’s troubles at the top of the agenda.

Johnson said: “Don’t, please, tell me more about the basic principles of financial reform unless and until you have addressed the Irish problem. And don’t tell me the Irish have to sort this out for themselves. Eventually, the world always comes to help; check your notes on Iceland.
Related Links

“It’s much better and much cheaper to come in early and decisively. We need a plan of action for Ireland, and we need it now.”

Pledges made by Ireland to support its banking sector amount to 220% of the country’s annual economic output. The total loans held in Irish banks are more than 11 times the size of the economy.

Following the scandal at Anglo Irish Bank over undisclosed loans, the market fears there are more hidden problems that could ultimately fall to the state to resolve.

With Ireland set to borrow an additional €15 billion (£13.4 billion) this year, the national debt pile will hit €70 billion.

The cost of insuring Irish debt hit 350 basis points on Friday, meaning that for every £100 of debt it would cost £3.50 to insure against default. A year ago it would have cost 10p to insure every £100 of Irish debt.

One possible solution would see Germany buy billions of euros of Irish government debt through a fund set up by the European Central Bank.

No, I mean Intrade would have to add this as a feature to their site. I already put in a suggestion, but I'm wondering if I'm the only one who would be interested in doing this kind of trading.

I am not saying I think Obama will go up or down... this is just an example. But the reason in this scenario I wouldn't want to buy the contract is, I want to limit my risk in case it goes down massively. Buying the option limits risk for the buyer. For the seller it means you get an automatic fee even if the price doesn't change much over the period of time agree to.

Will Intrade ever offer options contracts on its contracts?

Hi, would anyone be interested in selling call options for Obama and McCain contracts? Suppose I would like an option to buy 100 Obama @60 on October 1, and will pay you a small fee for this right.