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Messages posted by speedo

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Strangelove wrote: But as with anything here, the mere act of depositing money with the exchange is a bet in itself. It's a bet I feel comfortable making, knowing what I think I know about the exchange.


This is what I'm talking about -- you should evaluate that bet just like any other one you'd make on intrade. the company's probably going to be around, but what are the odds? are your potential winnings so great that it outweighs that risk? i'd say no, except in election season.
Another thing to consider -- leaving your money in Intrade is not risk-free. There's no insurance and certainly some precedent for these types of companies to fail. I would definitely pull my cash when it wasn't invested.

Do you think Intrade is more likely to be around than Morgan Stanley in three years? Three-year Morgan Stanley bonds yield about 4% right now. How about Caesar's? Their three-year bonds yield 14%.

I think there's no chance they replace Biden, so good buy... now you do have to compare the price to the Romney republican nominee contract which expires at the same time. That sure thing is trading at 96.5. So you're only picking up 4/5 points for the Biden risk and then the other 3.5 are for the time.
You can try to argue that Scott Walker is at least as good as some of the people that are trading a little higher than him. But in reality there is zero chance that he is picked as VP. Romney is going to pick who he thinks is best, not pull a name out of a hat. And there's no way anyone would think Scott Walker is the best.
There are no options available on facebook until may 29
I'm not convinced that Romney really will pick a boring white guy. Romney's a numbers guy and he has to see that the election looks tough for him.

Obviously he doesn't want a Palin, but someone like Portman/Pawlenty/even Daniels really brings little to the table. Now I know he's a little weird, but why not Bobby Jindal? He's just as boring, but Indian.
If anyone's wondering why Pawlenty moved today, POLITICO reported that Romney wants a "boring white guy"... top 3 are portman, daniels, pawlenty, with bob mcdonnell in fourth

article said he doesnt think rubio is vetted enough and christie is bugging them by asking for it too mcuh
This Blunt guy sounds decent, but I dunno if Romney would really want a lobbyist as his VP...

Who else are people thinking of when they buy other? 3.5 seems pretty cheap for it, except I can't think of anyone plausible who's not on the list.
Just saying he's at least as plausible as some of the people on the list... he's a big Romney supporter.

Serious suggestion: Giuliani -- he's popular, he's got name recognition, not necessarily a big turn-off to swing voters, immediately credible as potential president

what about sununu?
Agreed on Daniels/Thune...although I think Thune doesn't bring much to the ticket.

This idea that Rubio would get people excited is ridiculous. No matter how much Republicans would like to find their own Obama, he's not it. He's an OK speaker, pretty boring really. Is he any good when he's forced to get away from his talking points?

Christie is a much better politician, an appealing bully. My question with him is whether Romney would be willing to be upstaged and whether he'd want to do it.

On the other hand, I think having someone on the ticket who can cut ads in fluent Spanish would help. It's a lot better than having GW stutter through a script.
Ayotte is about as good a candidate as Martinez.. what about Kay Bailey Hutchinson?
I agree with Ethan, Martinez is just not a good candidate...

As for other theories about deciding what qualities Romney might want, I don't think its likely that we'll get good information before he makes a decision. The thing that's going to move markets is if the media forms a consensus about who's on the short list. Of course, that could be the time to short... remember the Tim Caine bubble?
Please keep bidding up Susana Martinez but she is not ready for prime time. She's inarticulate and inexperienced and will definitely inspire Palin comparisons.

Random tv appearance:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jD6EFO59RJ4

Fortuno also seems unlikely ... any other examples of puerto ricans becoming important national politicians? sounds tough to me
DMW you make a good point though. People in the news are always saying "Intrade was right!" when someone was trading over 50 then wins... If Intrade was always "right" in the way that they're saying, it would actually be biased and you could make a lot of money on it.
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