Messages posted by: shmoo597

Anyone want to buy a lot of corzine from me at 65?

Chris - those prices are low for me given where I am getting orders steadily filled right now. Thanks for the offer and I'll PM you if I am interested in a big transactions at those levels.

I am looking for action on this contract. Willing to buy REP at 55, and sell DEM at 45 for large volume (200-300 contracts).

If there are any takers PM me or respond to this thread and we can arrange something.

Katechon - we had an agreement to buy/sell 100 contracts (arranged via PM) and you have backed out and claim you don't want to do the deal now. Fine, whatever, but thats pretty blatantly hypocritical.

I put orders up for a few hundred contracts. Fill them if you want.

Sorry, typo. I meant more at 45/55 and 42.5/57.5. If you are more interested in actually trading and less in flaming me, respond to the PM I sent you.

Actually - on monday I have a huge amount of margin opening up. I am willing to make big trades at 45/55. My orders will be up within the next 48 hours.

What the fuck are you talking about? I put up orders, then left, I have no idea what you are saying re removing orders. Anyways, I put more up at 47.5/52.5 and at 45/55, they are all yours. My position is pretty big already, but I will keep adding at these prices.

If you wanna do 45/55 I am more than happy to fill big orders at those levels. Just let me know.

I have to disagree with all this analysis. If anything, though close, christie still has the edge. Let's not forget that he is still leading in every single poll done, and with the exception of the democratic leaning poll done last week, by a decent margin.

Yes Corzine has more money, yes new jersey has not elected a republican in awhile, yes christie's numbers are falling under relentless negative assault from corzine, and yes, supposedly democrats finish strongly in NJ. But lets be real - corzine is a sitting governor with an atrocious approval rating in the 30's, and poll numbers that hardly break the low 40's - this is normally death for an incumbent. His tenure has been a disaster, and he is still behind in ever poll done. And though the economy may start to improve, I dont think you will see drops in unemployment or real noticeable changes by November - and the republican attack machine will be in full force fighting healthcare, gov. spending, etc. The townhall hysteria/anger is just going to grow through these elections. Also who says Christie can't be viewed as a moderate? He is on many issues, and his crime fighting/anti-corruption bona-fides are a huge plus in NJ, esp after the recent corruption arrests.

Frankly I'm amazed I am getting orders filled to buy Christie at 47.5, and sell Corzine at 52.5. The momentum is on Corzine's side, but he is by no means the favorite - yet.

Here is an idea that I did not email to John, but that just occoured to me...Intrade PDA is ok, but I think a much better mobile trading platform is in order. I'd love to have better access and more info when I trade with my cellphone. The current mobile site is pretty basic and rudimentary.

This was covered earlier in the thread. Look at the clarification:

Clarification: (added 17 Sept 2008 ) If the economy is already in recession at the start of the year specified in the contract then the contract will be expired at 100 if there are two consecutive quarters of negative growth during that year (i.e Q1 to Q4 of that year).

Fuck, it looks like this contract actually expires on sept 30th...

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort_national.htm

I know that its technically against the contract rules, but would anyone really be upset if this is expired when the advanced or preliminary numbers are released, if there is no question that growth will be negative? (or positive for that matter?) If prelims or advanced numbers are -5%, there is a 0% chance that the final figures will be positive. No revision is ever that larger, or ever has been, in the history of the BEA.

I know this would break precedent, and the rules are clear, but it seems like such a waste to have so much money tied up for so long (both for intrade, and for those of us with contracts) if the outcome is totally clear. I doubt anything can be done about this but its gonna suck waiting through september...

I think it expires in june. It can be q4 of last year and q1 of this year. Final q1 numbers come out june 25th I think.

Is there some explanation I'm missing here?

Is the only reason this is trading in the low 90's because it expires in mid june, and people want to free up money?

This is a 100% sure thing, yet largish asks around 90-93 seem to appear constantly. Q1 final numbers come out in midjune. Basically, if you have the margin, you can get a 7%ish gain in a few months with no risk at all. I think it's a pretty sweet deal.