Duncan Hunter gaining traction?

ko wrote:

slickvguy wrote:

Hunter should be so lucky to have a peanut gallery. That would be a step up.

Then why go to the trouble? It seems like it would be a waste of your time. That is pretty much the definition of a peanut gallery of naysayers.

I think you are misunderstanding something.

I am not in any way making fun of Hunter. I respect him.

It's YOU that I'm teasing. Lighten up, friend.

Like you said, you've already made your fortune flipping this big volume, high priced contract. So what's the problem?

Sorry. I just can't help myself. Using the words "Hunter" and "traction" in the same sentence just makes me burst out laughing every time.

OK. I'll stop. I sincerely wish you great success!

In this poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.

http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd

In an exclusive poll conducted by EPIC/MRA for WXYZ and the Detroit News, 612 people likely to vote in the GOP primary were asked this week (Dec. 16-19) for their presidential pick “if the election were held today.” While 26 percent said they didn’t know, the majority broke down as follows:

Mitt Romney 21%
Mike Huckabee 19%
Rudy Giuliani 12%
John McCain 10%
Ron Paul 4%
Fred Thompson 4%
Duncan Hunter 4%
Tom Tancredo 1%
Other 2%
(margin of error: +/- 4%)

The results are a significant shift from an EPIC/MRA poll conducted Nov. 7-13. In that survey, 400 likely GOP primary voters said they would cast their vote as follows:

Rudy Giuliani 28%
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson 13%
John McCain 12%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Ron Paul 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Tom Tancredo 0%
Undecided 10%
(margin of error: +/-4.9%)

Here’s where I see the real action is. If Hunter beats Thompson in Iowa, then it’s time for Thompson to pack it in. He is, after all, “all in” for Iowa.

All In (Fred Thompson moves to Iowa)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1936775/posts?page=83#83

With Thompson out of his way, Hunter would have clear sailing for the social conservative evangelical vote in the next set of primaries. Those are the guys who skyrocketed Huckabee.

Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.

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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Here's a snapshot from Intrade. There is evidence that Hunter is gaining ground in Iowa.

For the Iowa caucus, Thompson is at the bottom of the pack, Romney has regained the lead from Huckabee. Ron Paul and Hunter are both embedded together, so there's no way of knowing if he's gaining ground, but on the basis of the president.field contract moving up 50% today, I'd say he's probably at ~0.3 and Ron Paul is at ~4.8, which puts Hunter ahead of Thompson.

Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win M 45.0 46.0 45.0 1690 +5.0
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win M 40.2 54.9 50.0 1960 0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win M 0.1 1.4 0.1 642 -1.4
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win M 0.6 4.4 0.2 860 -2.8
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win M - 0.1 0.1 701 0

REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win M 4.7 5.9 4.8 1384 +1.0

2008.PRES.FIELD
Field (any other candidate) to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 0.3 0.2 14910 +0.1

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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

In this poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd
Reply to this

<< There is evidence that Hunter is gaining ground in Iowa. >>

There is a 'good chance' that Hunter will pop into the top three. He is the most 'Republican' of the entire field in that his positions more closely reflect the party rank and file than any other candidate. Iowa, being a caucus state, can produce surprises and can cause an election to re-align. It all depends on who shows up.

Here's a snapshot from Intrade. There is evidence that Hunter is gaining ground in Iowa.

The price of Intrade contracts are not evidence of any candidate gaining ground. They reflect what traders are willing to buy and sell a contract at. Are you under teh impression that the traders here know something that isn't in the public domain? The vast majority are clueless. How else could it be? There is no inside information in this type of event to be leaked into the pricing. NOBODY knows how it will turn out.

The polls are not evidence either. They are deeply flawed and in no way can be assumed to predict what will happen.

You may very well be right that Hunter is doing better in IA. I hope so, for your sake.

Top three? I'd short that.

<< The price of Intrade contracts are not evidence of any candidate gaining ground. >>

True enough. Intrade is reflecting the fluidity of the race on the GOP side.

<< They reflect what traders are willing to buy and sell a contract at. Are you under teh impression that the traders here know something that isn't in the public domain? The vast majority are clueless. How else could it be? There is no inside information in this type of event to be leaked into the pricing. NOBODY knows how it will turn out. >>

In 2004 on election Monday evening, I assembled a tally sheet for tracking the electoral vote on Tuesday evening. I wanted to know immediately if the election were going one way or the other. The Iowa market precisely, exactly, without a single solitary error predicted each and every electoral vote. I was flabbergasted. Markets seem to have a collective understanding that the individual participants lack. It is almost metaphysical.....

<< Top three? [for Hunter] I'd short that. >>

Wouldn't that depend on the price?

cybear wrote:

There is a 'good chance' that Hunter will pop into the top three. He is the most 'Republican' of the entire field in that his positions more closely reflect the party rank and file than any other candidate. Iowa, being a caucus state, can produce surprises and can cause an election to re-align. It all depends on who shows up.

Yes, that's what I'm hoping for, for Hunter's sake.

I just sent in a contract suggestion to Intrade, but my mail client is down so they did not receive it. I lost all of what I wrote.

Here's a remake of the suggestion:

We need a Percentage of Vote in the Iowa Caucus contract. If I think, taking a current snapshot of Intrade results, that the Huckster is overpriced, I could short him at 50.

Here's a snapshot.

Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE 50.0
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY 20.0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) 0.1
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN 0.4
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI 0.1
REP.IOWA.FIELD 5.0

Similarly, if I think FredT will bring in more than 0.1% of the vote, I would buy such a contract.

We would need Intrade to break out Ron Paul, Hunter, and maybe even 1 or 2 other GOP candidates if the field breaks 2%.

The payout would be according to official voting percentages from the Iowa Caucus. The data generated could be the most accurate and useful information going into the caucases, as well as something worth comparing to afterwards, especially to poll results.

Anyone, feel free to send on in this suggestion to Intrade, I'm unable to do so from this computer.

How's that Hunter traction doin'?

I think it's the kind of traction you get as you're rolled off in a gurney to the hospital

*sigh* Are you two looking for abuse?

cybear wrote:

<< There is evidence that Hunter is gaining ground in Iowa. >>

There is a 'good chance' that Hunter will pop into the top three. He is the most 'Republican' of the entire field in that his positions more closely reflect the party rank and file than any other candidate. Iowa, being a caucus state, can produce surprises and can cause an election to re-align. It all depends on who shows up.

Idiot.

Sorry guys, yes. I know, I know. So juvenile of me.

What'd Hunter get though? 500 votes? Better stick to the energy industry cybear.

Tozikio wrote:

I think it's the kind of traction you get as you're rolled off in a gurney to the hospital

Good one.

C'mon cy - just a bit of humour. Keepin' it light.

Stop the presses....Duncan won a delegate in Wyoming today! Woohoo! The traction shifts into overdrive! heheh.

Looking forward to the Dem debate tonight. Can't wait to see Hillary vs. Obama. Best line of either campaign was when Hillary cackled and beamed "Oh...I'm looking forward to this..." re: Obama's foreign policy advisers being Clintonistas, and Obama shoots back that he's looking forward to her advising him as well. Snnnnnap!

slickvguy wrote:

How's that Hunter traction doin'?

Hunter picked up two delegates in Wyoming today.

Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter, two conservatives who both campaigned in the Cowboy state, each won two delegates. Ron Paul, a Texan who also campaigned there and beat Giuliani in Iowa, won none.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/01/mittwinsone.html

On the President contracts, Hunter has basically drawn even with Thompson: President.Field (where Hunter is embedded ) and President.Thompson are both at 0.2.

2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 1.0 0.2 40269 -0.4

2008.PRES.FIELD
Field (any other candidate) to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 0.3 0.2 16672 +0.0

I'd say Hunter is undervalued, yet again.

As much as I'd like to abuse Cybear for his prediction I can't blame him for thinking that.. Hunter is the only candidate that is pure conservative. All the others have serious flaws. I would expect more than 1% of the GOP would vote for him.. even with his tiny campaign and resources. Are so few Republicans idealists?

Tamalak wrote:

Hunter is the only candidate that is pure conservative. All the others have serious flaws. I would expect more than 1% of the GOP would vote for him.. even with his tiny campaign and resources. Are so few Republicans idealists?

He got more than 1% in today's Wyoming Primary & gained 2 delegates. The GOP withdrew its sponsorship of the New Hampshire debates, probably as a result. He's a real candidate.

Tamalak wrote:

Are so few Republicans idealists?

I think the GOP has been overtaken by bandwagon jumpers who only listen to the Main Stream Media (MSM). I just don't understand how the current crop of Bozos are the front runners. Either the GOP has changed or it makes sense to short all the front runners Romney, McCain, Giuliani, and Huckabee.