Duncan Hunter gaining traction?

slickvguy wrote:

ko, I don't know how old you are, but you really need to learn to accept opinions that are different from yours without making all sorts of baseless and unfounded accusations. It's a very good thing when people disagree with you. It is a potential learning opportunity. I always listen very closely to those who take the other side of any of my trades - much mroe so than those who take the same side - be it in the securities markets (serious money) or Tradesports (entertainment/play money).

p.s. I have no idea who put that spam up, but obviously there are many "Anonymous" posters. It certainly was not me. Duh. I don't know why my username appears as Anonymous. It should read SLICKVGUY. I'm logged in correctly, so I'm not sure what the problem is.

It's too bad I lost my previous post, because I felt it was eloquent in accepting your feedback. I agree with you about listening to those who don't see things like I do, it is always a great learning opportunity. I apologize for my tone, I'm working on bringing it down. I'm learning to shift gears from the political sites where it's a bit more rough & tumble. I suppose if I have some return feedback for you, it's that you shouldn't find yourself discouraging "irrational exuberance" such as what we see in Ron Paul supporters because it's a chance to make money, and that's what this forum is about.

I posted my answer to the Anonymous thing on a housekeeping thread...
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1881.page

All this back and forth about who is driving the Field price changes in these different primary markets has me deeply amused. It brings to mind the Indian parable of the blind men and the elephant - each seeing in the same object the projection of their biases and hopes.

Going on that theme, I'd like to throw out that if you go to the California primary, you can buy Field and get Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul and homeboy Duncan Hunter as a 3-for-1 package. I bought it at 15.0 on the assumption that even if it's all Mike Huckabee, he'll be challenging Rudy for the state soon enough. Enjoy.

ko wrote:

slickvguy wrote:

... implies that he will make a LARGE move up in the polls ("next up"), just as Huckabee did. "next up" implies more than just a tradeable bump. It means he will become the next one in the spotlight, etc. I disagree strongly. I think the odds of that happening are ZERO. In fact, I still think that Romney could win Iowa. Huckabee is horrible. If the GOP is stupid enough to nominate him, they'll deserve what they'll get (i.e. big losses).

Cybear may have "implied" a large move but I never have. My whole analysis has been based on Hunter moving up to $4 on Intrade, matching his polling status. I agree that if the GOP nominates huckster, they'll lose big.

Well, that makes perfect sense to me. Sniping.

I agreed with you that the price did not reflect the true odds, but sometimes an undervalued contract stays that way. Unlike a stock price, which usually will ultimately reflect the value of the company (weighing machine versus voting machine), these short-term contracts don't necessarily work that way. As you must be aware, it could easily stay relatively undervalued to what the true odds are and then expire worthless. In the Hunter contract's case, something needs to happen to provide the impetus for buying pressure to increase. I don't think it'll happen. You do. The contract is too cheap for me to short anyways.

I disagree with you about intrade being a leading indicator. I've seen so many cases of just the opposite. It's a market. Period. And it's not a very liquid one, which makes it less efficient and more ripe for certain people to do better. It's more like the stock market of old. As it gains in popularity, the edges will be smaller and less frequent.

I remember very clearly the '04 presidential election. I was long Bush. Based on early exit polling - which I knew was wrong - Kerry's contract moved into the .70's as if it was all over. It was a gift!

I bought a ton more Bush, and teh rest is history. I also was able to make money in a number of state contests, for the same reason. Most people here are reacting to widely dispersed public information, i.e. no edge. I guess it's fair to say that in some cases intrade leads, but in other cases it lags.

Anyways... I wish you the best of luck, because it won't cost me a penny if you're correct about Hunter - thus I'd like to see you win.

ko wrote:

It's too bad I lost my previous post, because I felt it was eloquent in accepting your feedback. I agree with you about listening to those who don't see things like I do, it is always a great learning opportunity. I apologize for my tone, I'm working on bringing it down. I'm learning to shift gears from the political sites where it's a bit more rough & tumble. I suppose if I have some return feedback for you, it's that you shouldn't find yourself discouraging "irrational exuberance" such as what we see in Ron Paul supporters because it's a chance to make money, and that's what this forum is about.

I posted my answer to the Anonymous thing on a housekeeping thread...
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1881.page

God, I hate when that happens (lost post). What I usually do is select all and copy, then paste into a notepad window, just in case the post doesn't go through. The thing with Intrade is that if you go to another webpage and come back, it'll remember your username, but not other information. it's misleading. So when you return to the site, you should always logoff and then log back in. I learned that the hard way.

Thanks for the feedback and apology. I have been guilty of getting carried away plenty of times myself. Not always the rational actor. heheh. We're all human afterall.

Onward...

Anything else you see or like out there? I've just started getting back into teh game after a long hiatus. I usually only play politics and current events on Tradesports (now intrade). Did nicely on the Roberts nomination!

I was surprised to see Gore VP at 10ish? Wow. That's nuts. But there are too few contracts available. I like taking large positions. That's the most difficult part of intrade - lack of liquidity in most of the contracts. It requires a lot of patience. I'm used to trading highly liquid markets (futures, options, stocks). It's hard for me to have the patience to accumulate a position.

If Paul wins NH it'll prove how out of touch both Iowa and NH are with the rest of the country. I don't think NH republicans want to be the laughing stock of the GOP. I wouldn't be surprised if McCain did better than expected there. That would make sense to me. And Paul will do well, I think. But he won't win it. Romney will win it.

<< cy, it is true that you did not say "traction". KO did. But what you did say (quoted above) implies that he will make a LARGE move up in the polls ("next up"), just as Huckabee did. "next up" implies more than just a tradeable bump. >>

Yes. I am betting that he will break into single digits on InTrade.

<< It means he will become the next one in the spotlight, etc. I disagree strongly. I think the odds of that happening are ZERO. >>

You could be right. Someone else may take the spotlight, or Huck may keep it, or one of the leaders may take it back. My sense is that the situation on the GOP side is very fluid. So fluid that 'zero' odds for any candidate is ludicrous. Again, I know I am playing long odds here.

I wish this sandbox were big enough to take some REAL positions.

<< I remember very clearly the '04 presidential election. >>

In 2004, I monitored the U of Iowa political markets site. On election Monday, I made up a tally sheet based on the probabilities assigned by that market to keep track for election night. I would then know instantly if there were any surprises in the electoral vote.

Each and EVERY state was called correctly. No exceptions. I couldn't believe it.

Delphi wrote:

All this back and forth about who is driving the Field price changes in these different primary markets has me deeply amused. It brings to mind the Indian parable of the blind men and the elephant - each seeing in the same object the projection of their biases and hopes.

Going on that theme, I'd like to throw out that if you go to the California primary, you can buy Field and get Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul and homeboy Duncan Hunter as a 3-for-1 package. I bought it at 15.0 on the assumption that even if it's all Mike Huckabee, he'll be challenging Rudy for the state soon enough. Enjoy.

Delphi, what happens when Intrade breaks out the contracts individually? Do they give you a choice as to where you wanted the original allotment to go? Most Intraders would take the best payout at that time, i.e. if the Huckster was doing the best they'd put their eggs in that basket. Have you been through this yet? I notice that on the primary races there are a lot of Field, and often Field has the lead. That's usually when Field has Ron Paul or Huckabee embedded in it.

My expectation is that they would not break up the field contract. If they did, they have to give people who own it contracts for each of the candidates added as well as a new field contract for those still left out.

Shorts would likewise be short on this set of contracts.

This is my first time around at Intrade for a presidential election. But I'm pretty certain they will not be breaking out the Field contracts.

Delphi wrote:

This is my first time around at Intrade for a presidential election. But I'm pretty certain they will not be breaking out the Field contracts.

I noticed that Intrade broke Thompson out of the field and he shot up to the lead, so they probably only want to do it when there's that kind of activity.

I sent it in as a suggestion to Intrade, but so far it hasn't happened. However, Intrade did open a Brokered Convention contract, so at least I know they read that suggestion.

How's that Hunter traction doing? lol.

slickvguy wrote:

How's that Hunter traction doing? lol.

As I've stated before, Hunter seems to be the only GOP candidate with his own peanut gallery of naysayers. After posting my analysis on this thread, some folks have moved in on Hunter's contracts and have doubled their money. That's what Intrade is about.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

Try not to spend the $10 profit all in one place.

p.s. Hunter should be so lucky to have a peanut gallery. That would be a step up.

slickvguy wrote:

Hunter should be so lucky to have a peanut gallery. That would be a step up.

Then why go to the trouble? It seems like it would be a waste of your time. That is pretty much the definition of a peanut gallery of naysayers.

Delphi wrote:

Going on that theme, I'd like to throw out that if you go to the California primary, you can buy Field and get Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul and homeboy Duncan Hunter as a 3-for-1 package. I bought it at 15.0 on the assumption that even if it's all Mike Huckabee, he'll be challenging Rudy for the state soon enough. Enjoy.

Seems like a pretty good bet. Also, the President.Field has Ron Paul & Hunter embedded, so it seems like it's a good bet.

I see that Hunter lost 0.1 on the news that Tancredo dropped out and endorsed Romney. I was surprised.