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blazespinnaker
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Joined: August 23, 2008 22:13:41 UTC
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ChrisVanNiekerk wrote: Reno, you raised some interesting points. In the old days we also had sports until they branched that out (Tradesports)...

But I liked having the Americans around. The Tea party folks and the Ron Paul supporters certainly provided liquidity and contributed to divergences between this and other prediction markets...

At the same time, many of the Americans actively contributed to the forum. It would really be a pity to see folks like Delphi, Ammoniad, Domer, MMB, WestSayid and others disappear from the radar screen.



I'm sure they'll re-open the forums for non paying members.
MoneyMetalBets
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Joined: January 23, 2008 21:08:59 UTC
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Enh....Chris is right. difficult to maintain interest when you don't have "skin in the game."
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PrinceMyshkin
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Joined: October 12, 2007 11:02:46 UTC
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Fifty-six percent of my account is tied up in contracts expiring Jan. 1. I wish the deadline could be pushed back nine days.
Domer
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Joined: October 25, 2007 07:13:37 UTC
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PrinceMyshkin wrote: Fifty-six percent of my account is tied up in contracts expiring Jan. 1. I wish the deadline could be pushed back nine days.


I also have a bunch of Jan 1st expiries.

Intrade, with all due respect, the timeline makes no sense. Either you stop everything today, or you wait until a reasonable time.

Pushing it back from December 31st to January 31st is not going to make much of a difference: the signal is clear enough that you are exiting and closing to Americans. CFTC can say Mission Accomplished and you can give your traders a few more weeks of breathing time to wind everything down. The vast majority of that Oscar market will expire at 0 by that time.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 23:26:47 UTC

mbb
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Joined: August 09, 2009 15:01:48 UTC
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We need some clarification ASAP on this.
Problem is, there's no "fair price". And it seems like Intrade's customer base just realigned towards Europe. Doesn't bode well for US customers.
satisfiction
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Joined: February 24, 2012 22:04:34 UTC
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For our non-US customers, we will continue to offer real-money prediction markets. In the coming weeks and months we plan to implement a number of improvements to the Intrade website. These include expanding our market categories to include sports, adding more convenient funding options and a new and improved trading interface. We'll keep you posted on these initiatives as they develop.

I did not get that part and I am a Canadian citizen. It is pretty fucked p though, i hope American customers can come back for midterms. If not the markets will probably have pretty low liquidity.
Delphi
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Joined: September 11, 2007 06:28:38 UTC
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bsr wrote:
The good news IMO is that from a political perspective this seems like a fairly non-partisan issue. There are not significant US domestic special interests involved either (that I can think of - since there's no US competitor allowed). And I think there is a certain "public good" component to the political markets that should help Intrade from a PR standpoint.


Yes, there's this. When you get an issue that a couple of folks like Andywend and myself can agree wholeheartedly on, there is the potential for strong grassroots reaction to an overreach like this one.

I also want to second the suggestion someone made above that we contact every journalist who has relied on Intrade to give color (and often, the entire thesis) for their political articles. Tell them that the CFTC has just threatened one of the tools of their profession. Maybe one of us should round up some email addresses and links to their articles.
Ingen Angiven
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Joined: June 16, 2011 06:34:58 UTC
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I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that he CFTC was the direct cause of this. Intrade has been quiet since the election. They knew they were shutting down since at least early November. Yet they apparently didn't know about the CFTC thing until more recently.

I think this is just a business decision for them. A super annoying business decision.
ChrisVanNiekerk
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Joined: January 26, 2008 19:53:44 UTC
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They knew they were shutting down since at least early November.


Ingen, what do you mean? I don't get it.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 23:50:22 UTC

ammoniad
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Ingen Angiven wrote: I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that he CFTC was the direct cause of this. Intrade has been quiet since the election. They knew they were shutting down since at least early November.
[...]
I think this is just a business decision for them. A super annoying business decision.

I agree with Ingen. The lack of new markets being posted makes a lot more sense now.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 27, 2012 00:03:55 UTC

Ingen Angiven
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They haven't been adding markets, they haven't been responded to email, and they haven't been posting on the forums since the election. This indicates to me that they knew they were going to be shutting down, and were probably getting everything ready to do so before they announced it.
bsr
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Joined: December 10, 2011 20:30:18 UTC
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ammoniad wrote:
Ingen Angiven wrote: I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that he CFTC was the direct cause of this. Intrade has been quiet since the election. They knew they were shutting down since at least early November.
[...]
I think this is just a business decision for them. A super annoying business decision.

I agree with Ingen. The lack of new markets being posted makes a lot more sense now.


Impossible to know without further information. But it would seem plausible that they've known this was coming for a while, and were able to persuade the CFTC to postpone its action until after 2012 Election Day. Obviously if they had announced this a month or two ago it would have likely killed their business permanently (I'd certainly never put money on the site again). As is, it's an inconvenience but leaves them with at least some credibility to win back US customers' business in the future (assuming they do plan to do so and are not permanently shutting down US pay trading...in which case it's a moot point).

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at November 27, 2012 00:12:01 UTC

Ingen Angiven
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Joined: June 16, 2011 06:34:58 UTC
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Intrade, can you confirm that you won't be charging U.S. customers a monthly fee starting in January 1?

I'd rather not have to shut down my account completely, in case you're able to go legit in the U.S. in the future, but I obviously don't want to start accruing monthly charges if I wait it out.
hippopotamax
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Joined: March 14, 2012 14:17:26 UTC
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If you read the actual CFTC complaint http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@lrenforcementactions/documents/legalpleading/enftradeexchangecomplaint11261.pdf it is clear this is not regulatory overreach. The CFTC is doing exactly what Congress ordered it to do. And it is also pretty clear that Intrade was playing with fire with the Dow markets and the Attack Iran market.
PositiveDelta
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Joined: October 22, 2012 15:37:40 UTC
Messages: 10
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I hate the CFTC, always going around and screwing US citizens by destroying their freedom of choice.

A couple years ago I used to trade Forex with a really good, fair, cost effective austrailian broker until the CFTC came in and forced US clients out.

Now, I joined Intrade about a month ago, got my account funded, and have been making good trades and your telling me the CFTC is taking them out too?!?!?!? You've got to be kidding me.......

Ingen Angiven wrote: Intrade, can you confirm that you won't be charging U.S. customers a monthly fee starting in January 1?

I'd rather not have to shut down my account completely, in case you're able to go legit in the U.S. in the future, but I obviously don't want to start accruing monthly charges if I wait it out.


Wouldn't that rule still kick in that as long as you don't have any money in the account you wouldn't pay the fee?

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at November 27, 2012 00:43:07 UTC

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