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blazespinnaker
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Ok, so this thread is about Ohio only. Cause, let's face it, the election is not about the president of the USA, but the president of Ohio (not my line).

Looks like Democrats are relying on urban votes to win:



Poll results here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

One thing I find interesting, is that PPP has gone from Obama +5 to Obama +1

Anyone from Ohio? Care to comment?

blazespinnaker
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/

In particular, it looks like Cleveland is the biggest draw for ads at 40M+

And then
Columbu 22
Cincinnati 17
Dayton 10
Toledo 9
Youngstown 5
bsr
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With all the OH early voting #s coming in, and both sides spinning furiously, here's a balanced take:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-spinning_b_1989094.html

On balance it looks so far like a slight shift in favor of the R's vs 2008 - but Obama has a 4.6% 2008 margin to work with.

Sam Wang commented that looking at these sort of stats is mostly just noise at this point, and that the best way to project Ohio remains looking at polls. Basically because these early voting results should be baked into the polls.
blazespinnaker
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http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/10/20/ryan-calls-obama-enemy-of-coal.html

Good line Obama used in the debate about about how Romney stood in front of a plant and said it would kill people.

blazespinnaker
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bsr wrote: With all the OH early voting #s coming in, and both sides spinning furiously, here's a balanced take:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-spinning_b_1989094.html

On balance it looks so far like a slight shift in favor of the R's vs 2008 - but Obama has a 4.6% 2008 margin to work with.

Sam Wang commented that looking at these sort of stats is mostly just noise at this point, and that the best way to project Ohio remains looking at polls. Basically because these early voting results should be baked into the polls.


Yeah, this makes sense. The polls are probably the best way to measure this since we have a significant history of dealing with that, versus early voting.. It's not quite clear what it means.


This is an interesting quote:

There are some troubling signs for Obama in the poll though. Ohioans trust Romney more on the economy by a 51/47 margin and trust him more on Libya 49/47. Obama had the advantage on each of those issues in our poll last weekend. Voters do trust Obama over Romney by a 52/44 margin on women's issues, and Obama leads 55/41 with female voters in the poll.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1020.pdf

It looks like the polls are taking Libya seriously and Romney definitely has an advantage there. If Romney can push it harder in the next debate, it may help his case.
blazespinnaker
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Here's how Nate rate the pollsters for Ohio:

Ohio:
Five Bars Weighted: Gravis, NBC/Marist, Survey USA, PPP, Columbus Dispatch, New York Times/Quinnipiac, Fox News.
Four Bars: CNN/opinion, Wenzel Stragegies, We Ask, Gravis Marketing, You Gov

Note that Nate has "house effect" adjustments, so take this with a grain of salt.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at October 20, 2012 23:19:52 UTC

diebold_hacker
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blazespinnaker wrote: Cause, let's face it, the election is not about the president of the USA, but the president of Ohio (not my line)


My line, thank you.

I'm surprised the candidates aren't spending more time there -- maybe their schedules aren't working well with that, or maybe their internal polling says some things we aren't aware of. It's not coincidental that the win Ohio and win the Presidency contracts are virtually identically priced. I think if they were smart they'd pound the pavement nearly non-stop in the last 2 weeks. Gore and Lieberman did that in Florida in 2000, and it paid off, although they should have spent a smidgen more time instructing their voters how to properly use a punch-card ballot.
bsr
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Now that we're getting down to the wire, worth looking at some exit polling from 2008 and how accurate it was. No idea if this is meaningful for 2012 but interesting nonetheless.

Note I used the male female splits to get the total (which CNN doesn't seem to report as a single #). Source figures are rounded so actual results may be a little different...

Actual O 51.5, M 46.9 (+4.6)
CNN exit poll O 52.0, M 46.4 (O +5.6)

So CNN gave Obama +1 vs the true results. I've looked at the other swing states, and there doesn't seem to be any consistent pattern of exit polls vs actuals. Posted in the main EC thread.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=OHP00p1
chpr
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PPP:

21% early voters, supports Obama 66/34
79% yet to voters, supports Romney 52/44

Doing the math:

13.86% of total voters support Obama from early voting, 7.14% for Romney
34.76% of total voters support Obama that have yet to vote, 41.08% for Romney

Adding these up you get: Obama 48.62, Romney 48.22.

Ohio is VERY close!
ko
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chpr wrote:

Ohio is VERY close!

That's what I've been saying. Here's the post that prompted us to think we should open up an Ohio thread.

The Early Vote Totals This Saturday Morning
(Ohio is closer than most people think)


By Jim Geraghty

October 20, 2012 9:05 A.M.

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/331052...tals-saturday-morning#comments

One of the lines you’ll hear periodically is that President Obama’s chances look better than some polls might suggest, because he’s running up his vote totals in early voting.

Larry Schweikart points out that at least in Ohio, the early vote is much closer than it was in 2008.


An Ohio history professor’s analysis of absentee ballot requests found a significant shift in Republican enthusiasm in the battleground state since 2008.

The University of Dayton’s Larry Schweikart tallied absentee ballot requests so far in 2012 and compared them to similar requests four years ago. His review showed a 7-point swing in favor of the GOP.

--excerpt--
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/331052...tals-saturday-morning#comments
idster
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What do you guys think about the fact that Bain Capital has purchased voting machines in Ohio (among other states)?
http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/13221476-romney-family-buys-voting-machines-through-bain-capital-investment
Mr. Money
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idster wrote: What do you guys think about the fact that Bain Capital has purchased voting machines in Ohio (among other states)?
http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/13221476-romney-family-buys-voting-machines-through-bain-capital-investment

Is Bain Capital actually setting up the voting machines in the polling centers? If not, there shouldn't be anything to worry about. I know there's concerns about them being easy to hack and whatnot, but I can't think of much of a plausible method where Bain can actually rig the machines. The fact that the process isn't completely transparent does bother me quite a bit though. In Russia, they had cameras everywhere to ensure no vote fraud was taking place. I don't think the actual vote counting is where our worries should be focused on though.

PS: Want some laughs? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tn8PVqCLQjw

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at October 21, 2012 10:36:55 UTC

blazespinnaker
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http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331046/ohio-closer-you-think-josh-jordan

  • Democratic turnout advantage from 2008 probably wasn’t as big as you think:

  • Romney is up big with independents:

  • The current poll samples have Democratic turnout matching or exceeding 2008 levels:

  • Early voting is not as positive for Obama as it was in 2008:

  • idster
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    Mr. Money wrote:
    idster wrote: What do you guys think about the fact that Bain Capital has purchased voting machines in Ohio (among other states)?
    http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/13221476-romney-family-buys-voting-machines-through-bain-capital-investment

    Is Bain Capital actually setting up the voting machines in the polling centers? If not, there shouldn't be anything to worry about. I know there's concerns about them being easy to hack and whatnot, but I can't think of much of a plausible method where Bain can actually rig the machines. The fact that the process isn't completely transparent does bother me quite a bit though. In Russia, they had cameras everywhere to ensure no vote fraud was taking place. I don't think the actual vote counting is where our worries should be focused on though.

    PS: Want some laughs? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tn8PVqCLQjw


    Why would Bain Capital choose voting machines to invest in, of all the possible stock, bond & real estate investments that are out there? I've never heard of Goldman Sachs investing in voting machines & GS has invested in practically everything.
    letzfoxtrot
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    GOTO BLAZE's lil color map...

    100% MORPH 2004 with 1960 & lets call it
    Mitt's longterm goal. Ignor 1964+1984 as we
    agree that our POTUS needs Bill Clinton's
    1992 moxie and then some. OHIO is neat...
    the older voters may vote like 1960, 1964
    or 1972, the middle aged voters remember
    the 1980s+1990s but the young are internet.
    Go to:   
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