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dmw610
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Joined: March 12, 2012 14:51:56 UTC
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160.7M.

You heard it here first.
Freefalling
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Domer already created a thread for this, but I think the expectations for this are way too high. I'm short in the 175m, 165m, and 155m markets. It may barely break 155m, but no way it'll break 165m. And if it breaks 175m, I'll eat a shoe.

Earlier in the weak I predicted a 157m open, but hopefully 154.9m

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at May 03, 2012 00:55:46 UTC

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@KidWithdream
Freefalling
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.

sorry, double post

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at May 03, 2012 00:55:27 UTC

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"I used to work for Ron Paul but was let go so I am working for Gary Johnson now." - kympa
@KidWithdream
Domer
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I'm short on all 3 myself, but I don't have any particularly strong feelings on it. I think the prices are good value on the short side.
dmw610
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I agree, the unders on the 175 and 165 are the place to be.

Why are the high expectations wrong? One factor, in my opinion, is the fact that it's already showing all over the world... so now it's available for download all over the internet. Some of the hardcore fanboys who might otherwise be lining up for the midnight show already torrented it.

The Wolverine leak cost the studio up to $20 million (though it was leaked four weeks early). This won't be nearly as dramatic... but it could shave 3-5mil off the gross, easily.



MoneyMetalBets
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Prices consistently above 80 for $155m this early do seem awfully high.
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CALIFORNIA
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Joined: October 26, 2007 20:20:54 UTC
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MoneyMetalBets wrote: Prices consistently above 80 for $155m this early do seem awfully high.

Ya think? . . . maybe should be more like ?

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at May 05, 2012 01:36:22 UTC

Domer
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Well that was a fun weekend. Liquidity was scarce at times but overall pretty good.
ClevelandDeac
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Joined: March 11, 2012 02:37:22 UTC
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I wish I had had the stones to gobble up the +175M shares. Got in fairly early on +155M but that was it.

Looking forward to the Dark Knight and Hobbit releases
Domer
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I lost about $1k on Avengers, but it was pretty much a hedge. I'm going to make around $3k shorting Twilight as 2nd highest earner of the year.
ClevelandDeac
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you think Twilight will beat out Dark Knight or Avengers?
Domer
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No of course not. It won't even beat Hunger Games.
Freefalling
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Well done all the longs in this market. Looks like I'm going to be way off.
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MoneyMetalBets
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Astounding weekend for The Avengers.

Interested to hear opinions on whether people think TDKR can top a $207m weekend? At the moment I say no, but barely.

Anyone interested in a 2012 highest domestic total box office contract? I think that even if TDKR's opening weekend doesn't beat The Avengers', that the total gross of TDKR will be higher.
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ClevelandDeac
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I strongly doubt the Dark Knight, being a sequel, will top the Avengers

But if any sequel can do better than Harry Potter, this might be it

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