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ClevelandDeac
Junior

Joined: March 11, 2012 02:37:22 UTC
Messages: 87
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Potential markets:

Who will finish 1/2/3 in number of final delegates going into the convention?

When will Romney get the 1,154 to clinch the nomination?

When will Romney announce his VP pick?



Intrade
Sage
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Joined: September 04, 2007 14:01:01 UTC
Messages: 2110
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Cleveland - if you can provide me with a rock-solid reliable source of delegate numbers I'd consider the first of these markets. Judging from other threads there doesn't appear to be one however.

Anyone else have an opinion on these suggestions?
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ClevelandDeac
Junior

Joined: March 11, 2012 02:37:22 UTC
Messages: 87
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my suggestion would be to select one media delegate count and use it as the "official" source

Wikipedia has used CNN's count as an estimator in the past

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Republican_Primary#cite_note-1
fjcp
Novice

Joined: January 21, 2012 02:26:46 UTC
Messages: 44
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You could close the first one on the basis of the first ballot at the convention?

the second one pretty much already exists, in the form of brokered convention (bet in favour if you think romney WONT get 1144)

as for the VP, date-oriented bets are a bit wierd (I have some shares that say Aliens will happen before dec31 2012... ), not to mention purely speculative.

wouldn't really bet on the first or the last to be honest.
ClevelandDeac
Junior

Joined: March 11, 2012 02:37:22 UTC
Messages: 87
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Bump

Case for the third one: make a set number of dates based on the primaries so we can trade as to when Romney will get the necessary delegates. Will spice up the primaries a little bit
Intrade
Sage
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Joined: September 04, 2007 14:01:01 UTC
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Sorry guys, delegate counts are just too messy so we'll stay away from any markets dependent on the number of delegates won by any candidate.
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