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Mr. Money
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Joined: January 22, 2012 19:53:59 UTC
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Is it too early? Hard to tell, but take a look at PPP's most recent poll, which should be enough to start a little chatter:
Democratic Primary 2016
Clinton 57%
Biden 14% (lol?)
Warren 6% (lol again?)
Cuomo 5%
Feingold 3%
Warner 2%
O'Malley/Schweitzer 1%

Cuomo is clearly the strongest Hillary competitor there, and his fiscally moderate position could be very advantageous with how high the debt will be by the time Obama is out of office (or Romney's first 4 years for you dreamers). I still think there's a lot of room for a more legitimate progressive candidate to emerge to the left of Hillary and Cuomo.

Republican Primary 2016
Christie 21%
Huckabee 17%
Jeb Bush 17%
Santorum 12%
Rubio 10%
Ryan 7%
Rand Paul 4%
Jindal 3%


Potentially bad news for Rubio? He's supposed to be contender for this nomination, has gotten a lot of exposure, and he's polling below "another Bush" as well as Santorum. Looks like nobody believes he's the conservative savior, as the wingnuts are gravitating more towards Huckabee and Santorum. One thing is working in his favor though, he's at 53% favorable, 10% unfavorable so a lot of people haven't formed opinions yet. Rand Paul is also surprisingly low indicating that Ron Paul might not have as large of a core group of supporters as suspected. But an equally large amount of people haven't formed opinions about Rand either.
Intrade
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Yep, a bit too early. We'll get this election out of the way and then list some 2016 markets.
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Mr. Money
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I was really just posting this for chatter which was why I didn't list it in suggestions. I'd have liked it to be listed cause I have a good idea who my dark horse picks would be, but nobody would sell me any decent amounts for it to be worth anything.
Strangelove
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lol, Carl was thinking to himself, "2016 markets already, WTF?"
Strangelove
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By the way, I'll go out on a big limb here and say Rubio barely edges Clinton in 2016.

"Remember, you heard it here first."
Mr. Money
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I think Clinton and Cuomo are the obvious two favorites in the Dem primary. Cuomo's been very calculated here, making all the right political moves and setting himself up. I wouldn't underestimate him at all, and it personally would be a tough choice between him and Clinton. Don't particularly like either of them, but I don't particularly dislike them either. They're mainstream Dem politicians, which sure beats mainstream GOP.

The GOP race is tough.. Christie isn't even all that popular in NJ and may lose re-election. I'd hardly even call him the favorite now even though he leads the polls. I have two dark horses in this one, that make perfect sense to me. One of them is rarely mentioned, but I think he is positioned perfectly to make a run. It'll be interesting. Who has no chance? Santorum.
Delphi
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In case Intrade is getting any ideas, all of the potential 2040 candidates are out. Kaput. Absolutely no chance.

http://www.theonion.com/video/report-every-potential-2040-president-already-unel,27963/
Ethan
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Delphi wrote: In case Intrade is getting any ideas, all of the potential 2040 candidates are out. Kaput. Absolutely no chance.

http://www.theonion.com/video/report-every-potential-2040-president-already-unel,27963/


Very entertaining. thanks!
ammoniad
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Hah. The best part of that was the text blurb at the bottom "Romney makes gaffe as he accidentally pulls $400,000 in crumpled bills out of his pocket while looking for a notecard."
ammoniad
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More seriously though, this actually is a real issue, and is something that I've discussed in some length with colleagues...

In only a decade or two pretty much anyone who is literate is going to have an electronic paper trail a thousand miles long, including every single time they got drunk with friends, every ex they've ever had, and easily accessible photos of every drunken escapade. The only people who won't have this ready-made trove of oppo research sitting on a silver platter for opponents will be either:

A) completely illiterate hermits who live in cabins in the woods (looking at you, Jeevus)

or B) people who've been groomed from BIRTH for political aspirations and have therefore spent their childhood, adolescent and young adult years in a surgically sterile bubble with their lives dedicated to and laser-focused on the sole purpose of avoiding any opportunities for future embarrassment... in short, people who have absolutely no normal life whatsoever.

Frankly, if it came down to a choice between the two, I'd prefer to have the illiterate hermit running the country.

In my opinion, this fact is actually going to be beneficial in the long run, because it is going to force the country to focus less on the personal lives of our leaders and more on their professional qualifications (because if we don't, there simply won't be anyone left).
Delphi
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ammoniad - I also think people are going to become more inured to all the noise of mini-indiscretions. They will start grading people on a sort of curve. In other words, a few past pictures of beer bong parties and wild one-night-stands will be expected. Just look at the evolution of "marijuana use" as a campaign issue. It was huge for Clinton, a minor one-day embarrassment when Bush admitted to it while in office, and by the time Obama's use came out, it was like "so?".

So it will go for facebook pictures in your past.

People will still focus on these silly superficial issues, because they're fun and much easier to understand than trade deficits and budget issues. But political consultants will slowly catch on that they are not disqualifying the candidates. People are just talking about them because they are fun and because they're vapid. We'll get a Facebook beer bong orgy president sooner than you think.
pietrusikm
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.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at April 20, 2012 22:56:07 UTC

WestSayid
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Yes, Delphi has it spot on.

viale
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I also agree with Delphi, but I would take it a step further and guess that the “elites” that would be potential prez material would not even think about making this stuff public. Take George Bush II for example, he partied his butt off, but he had a very big family name to protect so I doubt he would go blasting his exploits for all to see if facebook were around in his time. It was a big deal when his daughters where photographed partying, but that is the point, that sort of thing is exactly what they are being very careful not to let out even if it occasionally does.
ammoniad
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Delphi wrote: We'll get a Facebook beer bong orgy president sooner than you think.


Phew. That means I still have a shot.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at April 24, 2012 02:12:19 UTC

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