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Joined: December 30, 2011 03:06:25 UTC
Messages: 47

Tennessee is a big chunk of delegates, 58, about as big as Michigan and Arizona combined. The latest two polls (both done pre Michigan/Arizona meltdown) have Santorum with leads of 18 and 21.

The latest poll released had Santorum 40, Romney 19, Gingrich 13, and Paul 12. This is important not just as an indicator of the winner but in the way they award delegates.

Each district has 3 delegates, they give 2 to 1st place and if 2nd place has at least 20% they get 1, otherwise 1st place gets all 3.

Then there are 28 at-large delegates that are split pro-rata among all candidates with >20% of the vote.

I think its possible that all four of the candidates can beat the 20% threshhold, but its also possible that only two of them do. The latest poll shows Santorum as the only one above the threshhold, but it seems there are 16% of the votes going to Undecided.

2008 Results: Huckabee 34%, McCain 32%, Romney 24%, Paul 6%. Huckabee outpolled his numbers by about 5% due to evangelical influx to upset McCain.

My take: The polling has Santorum up about 20 but was done very early, but compared to national polls he should have lost nearly all of that. But in Michigan he lost it all to Romney and I think in TN he might be losing it to a combination of Romney/Gingrich, so I expect:

Romney: 27
Gingrich: 24

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