Search | Recent Topics
Author Message
Delphi
Sage
[Avatar]

Joined: September 11, 2007 06:28:38 UTC
Messages: 2495
Offline

Okay, I've accumulated a nice enough position in the mid-50's on Santorum in the Evergreen state. Now would someone like to tell me what the catch is? PPP's been tweeting that he's up by 10 there, and then today this:

In Washington state Santorum's favorability is 69/18, Romney's is 47/42. Similar to the divides we saw in Minnesota and Missouri


You may recall that Santorum crushed Mitt in those two states by 30 and 28 points, respectively. Similarly these are caucuses, where enthusiasm (hello evangelicals) matters. Add to that the "trimmed fat" Santorum seems to carve off of Newt's remaining support on voting day. Romney seems content to let Santorum win the non-binding beauty contests. It seems like at worst Santorum is going to make a decent showing in both Arizona and Michigan, with the narrative already set that that Romney has advantages in both states. So it seems like momentum isn't likely to be a factor, any more than it was in the beauty contest troika that Santorum swept right after Mitt won Florida and Nevada. History doesn't repeat, but this one seems to rhyme pretty well.

So my fellow Intradizens... what's not to like about this picture?
im a prophet. srsly
Novice

Joined: January 11, 2012 06:59:16 UTC
Messages: 40
Offline

considerable uncertainty.

washington comes right after arizona and michigan, and the effect of those races on santorum's and romney's momentum will depend sensitively on how each of them does relative to current expectations. an unexpected movement of a few points in AZ or MI could translate into a swing of like 10 points in WA.
nyboe
Sage
[Avatar]

Joined: September 13, 2008 14:09:15 UTC
Messages: 1941
Offline

I agree Delphi, easy bet.

Unfortunately all my money is tied up elsewhere at the moment or I would be buying it too
-----------------------------------
Brought to you by the letter “O” and the number 16 trillion.
ammoniad
Sage
[Avatar]

Joined: June 12, 2011 22:26:57 UTC
Messages: 2802
Offline

I'm with Prophet on this one:
Washington falls after AZ & MI, and as such, will be heavily weighted by their results. If he wins AZ and MI, I could easily see Mitt making up a 15-point deficit overnight and winning WA.

Edit:
Of course, if Mitt and Rick split AZ and MI, WA may not change much. And of course, if Mitt somehow manages to lose both of them, WA could turn into a Santorum landslide.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at February 20, 2012 21:14:40 UTC

im a prophet. srsly
Novice

Joined: January 11, 2012 06:59:16 UTC
Messages: 40
Offline

i should add that even if romney does better than expected in AZ and MI, and translates that into a solid win in washington, i still foresee erosion in his national position. there's been a precipitous drop in his head-to-head polling against obama, and the economy is starting to recover. these undermine the two premises of his campaign: that he's the most electable republican, and that his business know-how makes him the right man to fix the economy and therefore a good choice to be the next president.

furthermore, i think it's clear from santorum's surprise triple play in CO-MN-MO that the antiromney crowd hasn't shrunk at all, and have finally found in santorum someone they can coalesce around. *furthermore*, unlike his attacks on gingrich, romney cannot seem to find attacks against santorum that are compelling in the minds of conservatives.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at February 20, 2012 23:01:24 UTC

im a prophet. srsly
Novice

Joined: January 11, 2012 06:59:16 UTC
Messages: 40
Offline

...though i haven't reconciled all that with my race-by-race analysis of the individual primaries
ranthambhore
Director

Joined: September 04, 2007 14:54:01 UTC
Messages: 806
Offline

Delphi, mid 50's is safe, I wouldn't go much higher than that. Even if Romney wins both AZ and MI convincingly, WA will be a toss up so you won't lose much. But you have lots of upside. Smart move.
efficientmktlol
Novice

Joined: January 27, 2010 14:53:44 UTC
Messages: 34
Offline

im a prophet. srsly wrote:

*furthermore*, unlike his attacks on gingrich, romney cannot seem to find attacks against santorum that are compelling in the minds of conservatives.


that's because he can't make the kind of attacks that he'd like - the ones that Frothy is most susceptible on. because if he did attack him on these positions directly he'd further alienate a substantial portion of the base. the best RMoney can really hope to do is point out that Santorum has no shot at winning the GE with the stance on the issues he currently has.

what sucks for Mittens there is that Frothy is starting to poll better head-to-head against Obama than he is =/
Delphi
Sage
[Avatar]

Joined: September 11, 2007 06:28:38 UTC
Messages: 2495
Offline

prophet (et al?) - I guess my take on the effect of the calendar on Washington is as follows. Romney won a big state (Florida) by a healthy margin (14% over Newt) and a heavily-Mormon state by a wide margin (29%). These two decisive victories resulted in such momentum and inevitability that the electorate coalesced around the frontrunner... oops, sorry, wrong year. Santorum followed that by a few days later whacking Romney good in three non-binding beauty contests. Even before Gingrich had completely faded to the backburner for conservatives.

Fast forward to the rosy scenario for Romney: he wins a big state that he was born in by a healthy margin and a heavily-Mormon state (Arizona) by a (okay, forget the near tie in the current polling, lets say...) wide margin. These two decisive victories will result in such momentum that the electorate will ________ in a non-binding caucus a few days later? Have we learned anything yet about this year?

And then there's the non-rosy scenario...

I think my point is that people are still overestimating the coupling between successive states.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at February 21, 2012 02:22:54 UTC

efficientmktlol
Novice

Joined: January 27, 2010 14:53:44 UTC
Messages: 34
Offline

Those are good points. Can't give you too much of an argument there. Still might be better value elsewhere though.
ammoniad
Sage
[Avatar]

Joined: June 12, 2011 22:26:57 UTC
Messages: 2802
Offline

Delphi,
Fair enough. You make a good point.

(I'm glad that right now I only have money on a couple of specific, distinct events!!)
cityducks
Junior
[Avatar]

Joined: February 13, 2011 18:32:14 UTC
Messages: 54
Offline

Delphi,

Washington is as "heavily Mormon" as Arizona.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Arizona#Religion

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_(state)#Religion


Mormons will comprise a larger % of a Republican caucus than their proportion state wide; they will be further dedicated in this case to come out for one of their own. Polls don't measure dedication, especially for a caucus contest.

Nevada has considerably more Mormons than the above 2 (11%), but Romney also won that state by nearly 30 points, his largest victory yet by far.
speedo
Junior

Joined: January 23, 2008 23:16:13 UTC
Messages: 53
Offline

Crazy idea, could this be Ron Paul's best chance to win a state? He got more than 20% in 2008, and he's generally been improving on those totals. If Gingrich gets 5-10%, the winner might only need 30%.
Delphi
Sage
[Avatar]

Joined: September 11, 2007 06:28:38 UTC
Messages: 2495
Offline

cityducks, thanks for noting that. I thought I had a handle on which states had non-negligible Mormon populations. So Arizona's on par with Washington in LDSers, and it will be their dedication versus the dedication of pro-Santorum religious voters - who, presumably drive the outperformance Nate Silver has documented in candidates like him. Per wikipedia:

In NV evangelicals + Catholics outnumber LDS 40% to 11%.

In WA evangelicals + Catholics outnumber LDS 41% to 4%.
In AZ evangelicals + Catholics outnumber LDS 48% to 4%. (Though I imagine many of those Arizona Catholics are hispanic and therefore likely vote Democratic.)

So Romney's Kolob Column (sorry) won't be as much help in the two upcoming western states, but they will be there.


On another note related to how the final vote will differ from polls, I'm always curious how the Newt supporters might break. This observation from PPP is somewhat revealing toward that:

Gingrich's continued presence in the state is a boost to Romney. If he pulled out before Washington 59% of his supporters say they'd move to Santorum, compared to only 13% who would go to Romney. That would make the overall standings Santorum 49, Romney 28, Paul 16- as long as Gingrich stays in and keeps splitting the conservative vote it's keeping Romney competitive.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/santorum-leads-in-washington.html

Now Gingrich isn't going to drop out, but that gives a hint of who his supporters' second choices are. Seems like unlike very early in this race when one ABR candidate's supporters leaned toward the other ABRs but many also liked Mitt, now it is virtually all ABR. So I think you have to add at least a point or two to Santorum in any of these polls where Newt is still in double digits.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at February 21, 2012 18:27:00 UTC

Delphi
Sage
[Avatar]

Joined: September 11, 2007 06:28:38 UTC
Messages: 2495
Offline

Romney finished 4th in 2008, with 15%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Republican_caucuses,_2008
Go to:   
Powered by JForum 2.1.8 © JForum Team