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PrinceMyshkin
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36 seems way too high. Which state is he supposed to win? Is it Virginia as a protest against Mitt, the only other candidate on the ballot? Or will Mitt have dropped out by then?
NedStark
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There's a possibility that he wins an unimportant caucus state like South Dakota. I think it's probably too high (if you remember before Iowa, there was only a 58 cent split between Paul.Iowa and Paul to win at least one. Somehow that 58-cent split has turned into a $3.60 split.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at January 26, 2012 01:21:41 UTC

ammoniad
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Agreed.
The problem with shorting that market though is that the Paultards are going to be so stubborn/blind that it will take literally until the last state has voted in order to get an acceptable fraction of our profits out.
ChrisVanNiekerk
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I'm very sympathetic to Ron Paul but I also struggle to see where the win should come from. To begin with, here is a good analysis of where Ron Paul stands a chance:

In the 2008 Republican primary, Ron Paul failed to win a single state, but took second in 10 and came in third place in 17 states. Given his success already in 2012 and his delegate focused strategy, it is incredibly likely that he will come away with the winner in multiple states. Keep in mind that there are only 22 delegates up for grabs from Iowa and a paltry 12 in New Hampshire. Every single state or territory on this list has more delegates than that.

Many of the state (and territories) are difficult to gauge the chances of any candidate in, but here is the ranking of the states I estimate Ron Paul stands the best chance of winning in 2012 and why:

10. (tie) U.S. Virgin Islands 9 / Northern Mariana Islands 9 – There were 115 votes in the 2008 Northern Mariana Island caucus which is fewer likes than the Northern Mariana Islands for Ron Paul 2012 Facebook page has. There were 324 votes cast in the 2008 US Virgin Island caucus and “Uncommitted” won a plurality of them. Unlike Guam and American Samoa where Ron Paul didn’t receive any votes, he at least got some of them in these two locations. With such low turnout, it only makes sense that his chances are as good as anyones’.

9. Nevada, 28 delegates – Mitt Romney dominated here in 2008, but Ron Paul did come in second. The potential to win delegates through the proportional allocation rules means the campaign has been focusing here heavily for months. The prospects of potentially spending a day or two in Las Vegas should tempt plenty of college kids to take the campaign up on their offer of free housing and food in exchange for helping with last minute campaigning and get out the vote efforts. Romney’s momentum has slowed after a disappointing finish in South Carolina and Paul stands a good chance to capitalize and build some momentum of his own.

8. Wyoming, 29 delegates – Wyoming a caucus that votes for delegates themselves rather than the presidential candidates they will be voting for and has a pretty convoluted process for doing so. It isn’t a good sign that Ron Paul didn’t win the vote of a single delegate in 2008, but 4 of them voted for people other than John McCain. We don’t know who actually wins the delegates for sure until the convention, but given his success in the surrounding states, it’s reasonable to think that he stands a good chance to pick up the votes of a number of delegates, perhaps a plurality.

7. Alaska, 27 delegates – Super Tuesday will find Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich winning their home states of Massachusetts and Georgia and preoccupied in battles over the greater numbers of delegates and media coverage in Ohio and Tennessee. Paul took a close third here to Romney and Huckabee finishing with over 17% of the vote. He was the only candidate to campaign to visit there in 2008 and his campaign will devote it the most attention by far while the other candidates are distracted by Super Tuesday contests elsewhere. Having a closed caucus that requires registering as a Republican 30 days in advance doesn’t help his chances, but the favorable Republican electorate more than makes up for it.

6. Louisiana, 46 delegates - Ron Paul took second in this caucus in 2008 beating out Mitt Romney. The campaign has made it a priority this time around opening up an office there since September. The date is favorable too falling in within 11 days of primaries in Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri and Illinois all of which except Mississippi have more delegates and just 10 days before the state with the second most delegates, Texas, which is winner-take-all. It will be a prime state for the other campaigns to skip or at least not spend too much time on if the race is still competitive.

5. South Dakota, 28 delegates – Paul received almost 17% of the vote here in 2008, good enough for second to McCain in the June primary. There were 60,000 total votes cast then in a state with a population of a little over 800,000. If Paul can match the almost 4.3% of the population that he got to vote for him in New Hampshire in the more strongly Republican South Dakota, he would net nearly 35,000 votes which would make him competitive with the 42,000 votes John McCain got in 2008 after clinching the nomination.

4. Montana, 26 delegates – Ron Paul took second here in 2008 in the caucus on Super Tuesday with almost 25% of the vote and the non-binding primary in June with over 21% despite the fact that McCain had long since wrapped up the nomination. The 2008 caucus only allowed county party officials to vote which made his success even more remarkable. This time there is only an open primary which takes place in June with only the Utah primary left and if the race is already decided the presumptive nominee might not bother running a campaign. In 2008 there were only 1,630 votes cast in the caucus in this state of close to a million. Finding a thousand Ron Paul supporters willing to caucus shouldn’t be too hard, especially if those delegates will allow the Paul delegates to increase their influence on the Republican platform.

3. Puerto Rico, 23 delegates – Sam Stein highlighted Paul’s chances to wrap up Puerto Rico’s 23 delegates in a Huffington Post article about the strategy cues his campaign has taken from Obama’s 2008 victory. He points out that only 208 votes were cast in the 2008 caucuses and that the Paul campaign seems to be the only one with a presence there, highlighting a Puerto Rican businessman in their Hispanics for Ron Paul group and the work of independent grassroots efforts from supporters. Puerto Rico has a population of almost 4 million and while there may not be very many people interested in Republican politics, if they are the only ones trying, a couple hundred Paul supporters could be all it takes to win.

2. North Dakota, 28 delegates – A second Super Tuesday caucus that will provide Paul has a good chance to win while his opponents are distracted elsewhere. He won over 21% of the vote in 2008 losing to Mitt Romney by 1,500 votes. During the 2008 campaign, North Dakota’s residents gave a higher percentage of their total campaign donations than any other state. This is an open caucus and a state the Paul campaign has been targeting. He had a campaign headquarters open here before Gingrich had one in Iowa and his finish will reflect it.

1. Idaho, 32 delegates – With his opponents campaign elsewhere on Super Tuesday, Paul should improve upon the nearly 24% he received in the May 2008 primary. The change to a much earlier caucus should allow Ron Paul to replicate turnout from many of the same kind of voters who powered Barack Obama to a sizable victory there in February of 2008. The Mormon population should help Romney, but few state’s have a political that aligns better with Paul’s views which bodes well for his chances. Paul received almost 30,000 votes in the primaries 4 years ago and if caucus turnout is closer to the turnout at the Democratic caucus last time – only 21,224 votes, even half that should be enough to carry the state.


http://www.capitalfreepress.com/4429-states-ron-paul/

I don't see Paul winning Idaho. The caucus is only open to voters that register Republican. Mormons account for 15% of the population and a larger share of the Republican electorate. Romney carried this state in 2008 and will win it again. Almost the entire political establishment from the governor down has lined up behind him...

If anything, I see North Dakota as being Paul's best bet among the continental states. However, Romney won this state in 2008 and has the support of popular Senator Hoever and much of the political establishment... The voting population there also is older and Paul doesn't do very well among that segment. By that stage of the race, I don't think many Democrats and independents will bother to show up, register as Republicans, and mull around for hours to support someone that can no longer win the nomination...

Alaska could have been a good bet for Ron Paul but voters have to register Republican 30 days prior to the election. Romney won there in 2008 and I see him as the favorite again. Gingrich might get the support of Sarah Palin and will probably become the leading contender...

In sum, South Dakota, Idaho and Alaska are states with relatively small populations that carry a disproportionate amount of delegates. Romney won all of those states in 2008 and will invest to win them again. Those states will also inevitably become targets for Gingrich. Ron Paul did quite well in those states in 2008 but that was in a five-man race. His problem is that he inevitably reaches a ceiling and has very high unfavorables among Republicans in all of those states (as elsewhere)...

South Dakota and Montana would otherwise have been good bets for Paul but at that stage of the game, the race will be long over for Ron. Again, I don't see independents and Democrats showing up to vote there to strengthen Ron Paul's hand at the national convention. What would they care? Moreover, Romney won both of those states in 2008 and will want to avoid the severe embarrassment of being beaten there at the last minute when his nomination is just about secured by investing to win in those states...

I don't see Ron Paul standing a realistic chance elsewhere so I won't even discuss the other continental states... I do, however, think that Ron Paul stands a very good chance of winning the caucus in Puerto Rico.

This message was edited 6 times. Last update was at January 27, 2012 03:03:57 UTC

ChrisVanNiekerk
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The Paulites are getting optimistic again - totally exuberant in fact. They think that Romney's campaign isn't focused on Maine. However, he's actually opened an office there and he's got volunteers inside and outside the state campaigning for him. He's also got the backing of most of the party establishment. Every so often the Ron Paul community start talking up their chances and some spend their money here (I'll confess that I am a fan as well but would not put any cash on his candidacy).

If Romney lost Maine it would undoubtedly be a blow for him. It's the last of a string of contests before there is a lull in the campaign so the effect could linger for longer. Moreover, it's in his backyard. Clearly, the narrative would be that he's not organized and that his supporters are not enthusiastic (enough) about his candidacy (to caucus for him). This is just the sort of news he'd prefer to avoid after a series of successes.

http://www.pressherald.com/news/Maine-straw-poll-h...t-major-impact-unlikely--.html
speedo
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Joined: January 23, 2008 23:16:13 UTC
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anyone want to take a position on paul winning maine? would be willing to sell a fair amount @ 25
LiveFreeOrDie
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The easiest way to get someone to take you up on that offer is to actually put up the offer.
whig_party_person
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ronpaulforums.com talk is that their people have been at 40% to 50%
inside all the very confusing and not on the same day maine caucuses
and given that some ronulans have been going over to the areas where
the other candidates people are, there may be more paul supporters than
meets the naked eye. if this is correct and not optimism, speedo's offer
is low priced even with the resources up in new england that the former
governor of the state of massachusetts has. its a very nice offer and i am
humouring it carefully. its safe to assume ron paul could come in second
in maine. ron paul and mitt romney could end up very close to each other.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at February 02, 2012 22:42:41 UTC

whig_party_person
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i'm a newbie. a contract at 25 cents or 25% ---???
fifty cents sounds a tad pricy but perhaps might be
worth it and only five cents methinks is a pure steal.
i do think dr. ron paul will win at least one primary.


(a primary win has gotten slightly more difficult)
the virginia legislature has a bill that tolerates
write ins. if the bill passes, newt has high hopes.
heads or tails or the coin that falls on its rim redux.



This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at February 02, 2012 23:04:14 UTC

speedo
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you would pay 25 cents and win $1 if ron paul won maine... its around where its trading now. i dont want to put up a big offer unless someone is going to take it because id have to sell other stuff to get margin
Freefalling
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speedo wrote: you would pay 25 cents and win $1 if ron paul won maine... its around where its trading now. i dont want to put up a big offer unless someone is going to take it because id have to sell other stuff to get margin

Actually you pay $2.50 and get $10 back (profit of $7.50) if he wins
-----------------------------------
"I used to work for Ron Paul but was let go so I am working for Gary Johnson now." - kympa
@KidWithdream
ChrisVanNiekerk
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I've shorted Maine and Ron Paul to win a primary and I'm not going to be secretive about this. I think Ron Paul is trading much higher than where he should in both instances. Let me begin with Maine. I've been following the Ron Paul campaign there. They're on Facebook.

http://www.facebook.com/RP2012ME

Yesterday, these guys broadcast their caucus training live on ustream.tv. I checked that out. It was very enlightening. This was supposed to be one of two training sessions for their aspiring delegates. There were about 40-50 people in the room and there were another approx. 50 people following the presentation on live stream of their campaign manager and spokesman in Maine...

There was some interesting insight into their campaign. The campaign manager advised the crowd not to let anyone spouting theories about the new world order and the Illuminati give a talk at their caucuses... "These guys are part of the family, they're invited to the campaign events but like that crazy uncle, you want to keep them from the potato salad..."

He also explained that their ultimate goal is to get their people elected as caucus chair... If there are not enough people to fill the delegate slots, the caucus chair can subsequently appoint people of his/her choosing including people that were not present at the caucus. They can also nominate people as delegates that are not present at the caucus. The caucus chair also gets to appoint substitutes for anyone that can't make it to the state convention for whatever reason... Watching this presentation made me realize how you could win a majority of delegates without winning a majority of the vote in the presidential preference poll...

The Ron Paul people reported that they had won the first four out of five caucuses in Maine (they did not provide the total number of votes but the campaign knows them)... During the discussion it became obvious that while the folks in the room were very enthusiastic, the campaign lacked people that wanted to volunteer as delegates... It also dawned on me why the Ron Paul campaign would lose to Romney in Maine: This thing plays out over days and weeks as each town caucuses separately. This is like a football game taking place in slow motion. Of course, this setup favors the Romney campaign because there is more depth to their support. Hence, if they start really falling behind, they can catch up. They can make calls to their contacts in the local party (the establishment has largely lined up behind Romney) and they can get out more votes as required... The Ron Paul campaign simply isn't in a position to do so. Hence, I believe that the format of this contest and the depth in Romney's support within Maine clearly favors him although the Ron Paul campaign is very enthusiastic...

That brings me to why I don't think Ron Paul will win a single primary. This is the stated goal of the campaign:

Paul’s strategy is based in amassing smaller victories, not big or flashy ones. Like a glacier slowly reshaping the surrounding landscape, he is making the kind of dent that you only notice over time.

According to campaign manager Jesse Benton, Paul’s goal is to “do well” in Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Alaska, North Dakota, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri and Washington state.”


http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/bill-kellys-truth-squad/2012/feb/2/floridas-big-winners-mitt-romney-andron-paul/

If by "doing well," you mean capturing a lot of delegates, possibly even a majority - then the Ron Paul campaign is on track. At the same time there is a real ceiling for Ron Paul. He has a very committed following. He has been able to attract independent voters and Democrats who wanted to propel another type of Republican to victory. Now that it has become apparent that he can no longer win the nomination, those voters will no longer show up. So it is down to the hardcore. But they're not enough to win an election even in the caucuses which primarily attract the activists...

Paul's unapologetic rejection of the Republican establishment means that he does not gather significant support from the state parties. They largely view him as not really being a true Republican - too far removed from the mainstream. They would see a victory of his at the state level (to some extent) as an embarrassment. If push came to shove, they would probably vote for their second choice candidate to prevent a Ron Paul victory. But I don't see that happening because I think the prospect of that is diminishing. Maybe Ron Paul can win Puerto Rico (where 259 Republicans showed up to caucus in 2008 ) or the U.S. Virgin Islands. Beyond that it gets very difficult...

This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at February 02, 2012 22:20:20 UTC

whig_party_person
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http://www.drudgereport.com/
whig_party_person
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(toadyz are all over threads at the RPFs as intrade is noticed + opined on!)
AT ALMOST THREE P.M EASTERN IN THE AFTERNOON DOCTOR RON PAUL
FIRST PLACE SHARES WERE SPECULATIVELY TRADING AT SEVEN BUCKs!
there was also a thread at the RPFs about the Intrade RP price climbing up.

earlier at about 1:30 1st place ron paul shares had climbed up and
over five bucks! mitt romney 1st place shares and ron paul 1st place
shares were just within a few cents of each other. i thought he could
win maine. matt drudge had several headlines up about maine and ron paul.

yes, earlier i said this. did i help along the speculative bubble perhaps?
"this is it. its 50/50 by tonite we will need a new market. maine
could go to ron paul by the terms of the market contract as specified
by Intrade. the march caucuses after this are icing on the cake."

doctor ron paul came very damn close to winning maine. there is a
guy with the last name silver who tweets who opined on this and set
off a bubble. was maine technically a tie if the washington county caucus
was moved up a week so as to give mitt romney a bigger margin at 6:20?

This message was edited 10 times. Last update was at February 12, 2012 14:10:34 UTC

whig_party_person
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THE TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 6:20 BY THE GOP!

GOOD LUCK. MITT ROMNEY EITHER WINs IT OR

WE SEE DOCTOR RON PAUL VICTORIOUS A.S.A.P!

THIS IS IT IN TERMS OF INTRADE AND THE BETTING.

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