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viale
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Hello,

If anyone is interested, I have placed Ask prices for all contenders for the 2012 French Presidential Election. The prices are pretty high, but I am just trying to get some activity stimulated, so if anyone is interested in selling the entire market, please start offering some prices and I’m sure we could make it competitive.

Thanks

Viale
PrinceMyshkin
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For what it's worth, two mathematicians say Sarko will win the second round with 50.3% of the vote, based on popularity and the unemployment rate:

http://elections.lefigaro.fr/presidentielle-2012/2012/03/08/01039-20120308ARTFIG00734-les-maths-donnent-sarkozy-victorieux-avec-503-des-voix.php

viale
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Ugh, the devil you know I guess. I figured there was no way he could win, but he keeps hanging in according to the polls. I guess George bush won re-election. I still like holl at 60ish, but no lock by any means
Katechon
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http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16192930

Should probably help Sarko.
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viale
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I would think so. A few days ago this market has gotten active and I think someone was buying the current president all the way up to 40, just based on this news and the thinking that he will "deal" with the crisis in a way that will make him look good. I used this to my advantage to get a some shares of hollande at 60-64, which is a price I am fine with.
Katechon
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-france-elections-pollbre82l07q-20120321,0,4200054.story

Sarkozy is taking the lead in first round.
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PrinceMyshkin
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Here are tools for tracking all the polls:

http://elections.lefigaro.fr/presidentielle-2012/2012/02/22/01039-20120222ARTFIG00341-presidentielle-les-intentions-de-vote-en-un-coup-d-339il.php

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/infographe/2012/02/21/presidentielle-2012-comparez-toutes-les-intentions-de-vote_1637470_1471069.html
viale
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Thanks Prince, pretty nice tracking sites, everyhing in one place.

I find it odd that they dont do other runoff heads up polling just in case le pen or bayrou sneaks in. I realize it is not likely, but if something like that did happen we would be lost as traders from a polling standpoint.
Katechon
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This also is pretty useful :

http://www.sondages-en-france.fr/sondages/Elections/Pr%C3%A9sidentielles%202012
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PrinceMyshkin
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viale wrote:

I find it odd that they dont do other runoff heads up polling just in case le pen or bayrou sneaks in. I realize it is not likely, but if something like that did happen we would be lost as traders from a polling standpoint.


Well with Sarko-Pen you would have a rout like in 2002, with Socialists voting en masse for Sarko "with gloves on." I think Holly-Pen would also be a landslide, albeit a smaller one. Bay would be more interesting, but he is even less likely to sneak in than Pen, especially post-Toulouse.

I think that first-round voters will remember 2002 and be more mindful of the dangers of splitting the vote.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at April 03, 2012 17:44:50 UTC

PrinceMyshkin
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Sarko is not making up the second-round gap despite Toulouse and his vigorous campaigning. I am out of my longs for now.
viale
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Yeah, the prices have been pretty up and down, so you should be able to get the price you want but only a small amount of shares. Unless Sarko polls ahead in the second round I don't see him pressing 40 again so good move on getting out. I've been long holl all the way so im just standing my ground until something changes. I just wish I had more bids in when he dropped to 50 the other day. That 3.0 bid on bayr seems like a waste of money, you can get the top two for 94 if you short everyone else which seems like a good deal to me.
Katechon
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The daily IFOP rolling poll.

Sarkozy 28.5 (-0.5)
Hollande 27.5

2d round
Hollande 53.5 (-0.5)
Sarkozy 46.5 (+0.5)

No big change though Sarkozy reaches again his best 2d round score with this pollster.

Better news for Sarkozy can be found in non-voting intention questions. In particular, Ifop asks: "Deep down, do you wish that Nicolas Sarkozy or Hollande win the next presidential election ?". Sarkozy was 13 points behind in January, but he's now only 2 points behind: Hollande leads 36 to 34.

This shows the continuous weakening of voters' enthusiasm for Hollande.

Another interesting evolution is the voters anticipated result: 33% think hollande will win, 30% Sarkozy, 8 another, 29 don't know. The momentum of the campaign in Sarkozy's favour has apparently managed to reduce the impression that Hollande is the overwhelming favorite (even if 2d round polls still indicate it). This might prevent any complacency in left-wing voters, and this might mobilize right-wing voters who can feel defeat is not yet assured...

Lots of interesting info on the crosstabs ( http://www.fiducial.fr/files/fiducial/pdf/rolling-Ifop-Fiducial-ParisMatch-030412.pdf ) especially that Sarkozy keeps a dominant position in the 65+ electorate, who happen to be the most sure of their choice...

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PrinceMyshkin
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Screw it, I just bet all my available money against the man of the moment, Melenchon. The French are not going to elect the representative of a party comprised mostly of communists who wants to cap salaries at 380,000 euros and make it illegal for companies earning a profit to lay anyone off. The only way he could win is if both he and Le Pen make it to the second round (Is that what all those bids are based on?), but the chances of that are remote.

In other news, Sarko has proven once and for all that he is no cheese-eating surrender monkey:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189535/France-election-2012-Nicolas-Sarkozy-bans-cheese-from-Elysee-Palace.html

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at April 06, 2012 01:35:53 UTC

viale
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I think that 3% or whatever he was is just someone trying to get a bunch of shares quickly, but this market is so bulky, even offering a price like that would not work. Did you see holl go all the way up to 75% the other day(or was it 85%)? This market is suffering big time from lack of trades, but that is the reason I am watching it so close, easy to make money with the big swings.

Lol on the cheese story.
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