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ChrisVanNiekerk
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I'll just start a new thread here for those interested in this particular market... I see major problems ahead for Palin, Romney and Huckabee... I also don't quite understand why Thune is trading at 15... Pawlenty is preparing to run and I think he has a good shot... Your take?

This message was edited 7 times. Last update was at November 11, 2010 09:31:33 UTC

ChrisVanNiekerk
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Nate Silver has a good analysis in which he argues for Palin, Romney, Huckabee and Gingrich and against Thune and Pawlenty.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/11/2012-contenders-to-bet-against/?partner=rss&emc=rss

I also see Gingrich as a strong candidate. The downside for him is that his constituency overlaps quite a bit with Sarah Palin.

I'm not really sure about Romney...

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/opinions/view/opinion/Is-Mitt-Romney-Really-the-GOP-Front-Runner-for-2012-5766/

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 11, 2010 21:35:36 UTC

LiveAces
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The reason Thune its trading so high is because he has no baggage. That and his state is in love with him. He didn't even have a challenger for his senate seat. Him and Pawlenty are kind of outsiders people might move to when they do some more research. Both would be good running mates.

Romney - RomneyCare
Palin - Can't fit it onto one line
Gingrich - Check out his personal history / wives

I kinda like Huck though. Especially at the low price.
LongOdds
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LiveAces wrote:

I kinda like Huck though. Especially at the low price.


Playing devil's advocate, this might be why Huck isn't a safe bet. He commuted a guy who went on to kill four cops. That's like Willie Horton times a hundred.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Huckabee#Clemency_and_Pardon_controversies

This was a fairly big deal when it happened last year. It's faded into the background for now, but it's going to again come to the forefront in a year when the smear campaigns and brutal primary ads go full force and it might singlehandedly be enough to sink him.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 12, 2010 03:49:17 UTC

jhtrico1850
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@Chris: There are already polls showing Newt trailing Obama, yet Huckabee/Romney leading in the same poll.

Never mind his 1998 resignation, his rendezvous with Pelosi, or his "Dems are food stamp party" or "Obama is a Kenyan anticoloniast". He'll also be the first adulterer to run for President as far as I know.

@Long: I read blogs like HotAir and no one really cares about that. http://rightwingnews.com/2010/01/conservative-blogger-poll-the-2012-gop-primaries/ But they also don't like Hucakbee too much, often calling him Tax Hike Mike (self-explanatory). He'll get a lukewarm reception from conservative media, though not as tepid for McCain.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at November 12, 2010 05:03:28 UTC

Delphi
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At the current prices, I like Rick Perry, Gary Johnson, Christie and even Jindal. This quartet can be had for a total of about 5.0, the price of one shopworn controversial ex-House Speaker from 1998.

I realize that besides Johnson these names have all denied plans to run, but they could still "heed a call from their country" and jump in. Though shelf life on that route is running short. I keep meaning to look it up, but I believe right around now was when folks like Mark Warner, Russ Feingold and Evan Bayh started bowing out. Though to some extent those trees fell because the big timbers of Clinton, Obama and Edwards were blocking out all the sunlight. I'm not sure that's the case with the current GOP "field". At least the CW we keep hearing is that "we're still looking for The One".
Abacus
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jhtrico1850 wrote: He'll also be the first adulterer to run for President as far as I know.



You are very naive. Our presidents are not saints. You better do a little reading about JFK and not books authored by his sycophants. Try The Dark Side of Camelot by Seymour Hersh. JFK had the clap so many times it never really went away. He also had an affair with a communist spy who his brother, Bobby, deported. Much of Bobby's time as Attorney General was spent cleaning up messes caused by JFK. Then there were the orgies JFK, Bobby and Teddy used to enjoy in the White House pool. A truly disgusting family.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at November 12, 2010 07:01:04 UTC

jhtrico1850
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First admitted adulterer, tomato potato.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/11/12/perry-headed-to-rgawhat-about-washington/

Rick is going to lead RGA, he's not going to be President. By golly, he only got 55% in 2010 from Bushland.
gsims
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Hard to pin down exactly, but it seems that there has been a decent amount of volume in this market in the past few weeks.

My 2 cents - Palin is an obvious short at current levels. I like selling Palin and buying baskets of 'dark horse' candidates. If Huckabee pops, I like selling him around 15 as well. Same with Gingrich - no way he wins with the skeletons in his closet.

I don't think think Pawlenty emerges as a major contender. He polls poorly in his home state, and I have a hard time believing that he'll have much national appeal. As far as people likely to place second or third, I'd rather be long Rick Perry or Mitch Daniels. Curious what people think about Thune. Anyone read any good articles about his presidential prospects lately?

Agree with commenter above that despite most people having written off Jindal, he is probably a good value here. Giuliani won't run after his last disastrous campaign. There's almost as much volume for another New Yorker though- Pataki. He's been pretty quiet though.

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jhtrico1850
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Rick Perry is another Sharron Angle and he's already declined to run.

If you like Daniels, Pawlenty would have better appeal. He wouldn't look like a munchkin standing next to Obama for example. Red governor in a red state, zzz.

Thune is a junior Senator that voted for TARP, in that regards, he's similar to Obama. Of all the people to talk about, not sure why the media likes him so much.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at January 09, 2011 16:09:32 UTC

Delphi
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Any thoughts here on Jon Huntsman? I think the current zeal (3.8) for him is getting carried away.

1. He has quietly and without public dispute served the Obama Administration as Ambassador to China. Not exactly a perfect setup for turning around and demonizing Obama during the primaries, as the current situation seems to require for the GOP potentials.

2. Personality-wise he's the furthest thing from a bomb-thrower. He's a refreshingly respectful politician. That doesn't fit well with the current storm-the-castle mood of the tea partiers.

3. He'd be fighting Romney for Mormon votes in Nevada, and for access to the Mormon fundraising network in Utah.

4. Did I mention he's a Mormon?

5. Despite being Gov. of Utah, he's been surprisingly moderate on social issues. That would help in the general if he got there, but it kills him in the primaries.

6. He just bought a big house in DC. And he has that "Washington insider" smell all over him. (Not that there's anything wrong with that.)

How does he rise above footnote status in the upcoming battle?

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at January 10, 2011 23:47:19 UTC

Domer
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I'll hold my reasons close to the vest but I currently have 1850 shares of Huntsman at an average price of .6, with 0 interest in selling.
LiveAces
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^ I'd get out while you still can. Just my 2 cents. I don't know how he is trading that high. He hasn't hinted at all about a presidential run, hasn't visited any key states, and is a pretty awkward guy. Good luck though, with that much cash in that low I guess it could pay off.
Domer
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I don't want to say much because I don't want to affect the price...I will say that I was not happy when that Newsweek article came out because I had wanted to buy a whole lot more.
Delphi
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Interesting Domer. And he has hinted (in the typical backhanded way that's the style these days) that he will run. But my post was about "what then?" He's got to get either evangelicals or tea partiers excited about him, and I don't readily see how. I see him only appealing to moderate Republicans, and there are several candidates already targetting them (Romney, Daniels, Pawlenty for starters).

He does look presidential, I'll grant.

Be sure to drop back in and tell us your reasoning after you cash out, if you do. Always fun to do post-mortem's on these prices.
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