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jsytsai
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[black smoke rising from head, frown on face]
bsr
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ChrisVanNiekerk wrote: Not only a smoking gun... I'm absolutely appaled by this naked power grab. The CFTC failed to protect consumers and taxpayers back in 2008 during the financial crisis because complex financial instruments were not adequately regulated. Now they're going after the small fry on Intrade. Pathetic!!!


The good news IMO is that from a political perspective this seems like a fairly non-partisan issue. There are not significant US domestic special interests involved either (that I can think of - since there's no US competitor allowed). And I think there is a certain "public good" component to the political markets that should help Intrade from a PR standpoint.
Domer
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tothal wrote:

I'm wondering the exact same thing. I've sent a request asking if there was something they could do.


Well I'm already going to get screwed on Argo, which is worth about 10 but is trading near 30, and that is tilting enough as it is.

I might need to move outside the US in the next month just based on that single contract alone.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 22:48:25 UTC

Ingen Angiven
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I'm short in 23 Oscar markets. It would be difficult to unwind.
Illuminated
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U.S. customers are screwed here. Oscars, Dec. 31 expiry.

This was either not thought out or they just gave the biggest middle finger to US customers ever.

They should reconsider other ways to handle unwinding positions
blazespinnaker
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I don't know their business model exactly but I don't see how it could be a net positive to trade off their large and well-defended US political market customer base to enter a massively competitive market like sports. But who knows.


Super Tuesday 2012 market had 807 unique traders. At 5$ per month per user, that's 4K.

A lot of people I know in the website industry make around 15K per month base salary, and that's before things like health / taxes / overhead / etc. That's probably high for Dublin, but this sure doesn't feel like a cash cow in its current form.

BetFair, however, makes a fair amount:


The online gaming group saw revenues up 13% to £91.6m in the three months to 31 July. UK growth was up 23%.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19554469

My bet is that the revamped UI will probably be pretty mobile focused.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 22:51:32 UTC

renojudachi
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This is very disappointing - and I'm a UK member who's only been here since September. Obviously I've seen Intrade at its most active, but my experience since 7th November is that there is just about enough activity to make it worthwhile sticking around. Now, as usual, big bloody business steps in on the basis that free markets are fine until the little guy finds a niche! Is the US legal system utterly bought up by a casino cartel?!

Although there is this 'teaser' that Intrade might be able to find a way of keeping US people in, it's hard to see what this could be. Is there perhaps a means by which US residents could trade real money 'at arms length' in some way?

As for a non-US future - not sure I would stay (even if Intrade built up a big enough base)
1. I like this because it's not a standard betting site - I love the 'no sports' rule because although I like watching sport and reading about it I can't bear internet punditry.
2. All this talk of social interfaces and prizes between friends? So that's the future of Intrade - Facebook for gambling junkies? My idea of hell.
3. I am really interested in US politics, and these markets would be much less fun to play without US traders (and I learnt a lot from many of them)
4. Finally....I can't believe that I would make as much money as I did on Nov 7th if the flat-earthist Tea Party supporters were not around to determinedly throw their money away! These kind of political crazies are everywhere, I know - but not to the same extent....

I'll be interested to see how these markets do get wound up - it would seem impossible to do this without everyone pulling out. Surely the whole point of this is that we are trading with each other, so every trade in a particular market is interlinked - and so that US traders can only pull out of their open positions if they have find a non-US trader to to play along. Does that mean we Euros can hang around like vultures until 23rd December picking up bargains as they try to close out? Seems really unfair.

Obviously I will be hoping this isn't the end, and will be watching closely over the next few weeks to see how this pans out.
blazespinnaker
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I think you're being a bit dramatic. I suspect the Oscars are probably thick with americans and that they'll have to buy/sell to each other in order to exit their positions.

MoneyMetalBets
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Can someone please post the copy from the email that supposedly went out to non-US traders?
-----------------------------------
Twitter - @MoneyMetalBets
renojudachi
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OK - that makes sense. Not that I would trade on the Oscars - I haven't been to the movies in 10 years and think I'd probably lose a lot of money gambling there!
Do you think there might be a compromise where US citizens are allowed in as long as they are barred from all the finance/business markets?
kerzane
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MoneyMetalBets wrote: Can someone please post the copy from the email that supposedly went out to non-US traders?


intrade wrote:

We are sorry to announce that due to legal and regulatory pressures, Intrade can no longer allow US residents to participate in our real-money prediction markets.

Effective immediately, US residents can no longer open an Intrade account. Existing US customers are asked to close out all open predictions and request a withdrawal for the final balance of their Intrade accounts before December 23, 2012. Further information on this process can be found HERE. We strongly urge all US customers to read this information immediately and begin the process of closing their accounts.

We understand this announcement may come as a surprise and a disappointment to our US customers, but this in no way signals the end of Intrade in the US. In the near future we'll announce plans for a new exchange model that will allow legal participation from all jurisdictions – including the US. We believe this new model will further enhance Intrade position as the leading prediction market platform for real time probabilities about future events.

For our non-US customers, we will continue to offer real-money prediction markets. In the coming weeks and months we plan to implement a number of improvements to the Intrade website. These include expanding our market categories to include sports, adding more convenient funding options and a new and improved trading interface. We'll keep you posted on these initiatives as they develop.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 23:01:42 UTC

renojudachi
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MoneyMetalBets wrote: Can someone please post the copy from the email that supposedly went out to non-US traders?


Here it is - but it looks like it is the same as you in the US got as it addresses both of us.....

Hello Chris,


We are sorry to announce that due to legal and regulatory pressures, Intrade can no longer allow US residents to participate in our real-money prediction markets.


Effective immediately, US residents can no longer open an Intrade account. Existing US customers are asked to close out all open predictions and request a withdrawal for the final balance of their Intrade accounts before December 23, 2012. Further information on this process can be found HERE. We strongly urge all US customers to read this information immediately and begin the process of closing their accounts.


We understand this announcement may come as a surprise and a disappointment to our US customers, but this in no way signals the end of Intrade in the US. In the near future we'll announce plans for a new exchange model that will allow legal participation from all jurisdictions – including the US. We believe this new model will further enhance Intrade position as the leading prediction market platform for real time probabilities about future events.


For our non-US customers, we will continue to offer real-money prediction markets. In the coming weeks and months we plan to implement a number of improvements to the Intrade website. These include expanding our market categories to include sports, adding more convenient funding options and a new and improved trading interface. We'll keep you posted on these initiatives as they develop.



Kind regards,



Carl Wolfenden

Exchange Operations Manager

Intrade – The Prediction Market
ammoniad
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MoneyMetalBets wrote: Can someone please post the copy from the email that supposedly went out to non-US traders?

Did an email go out specifically to non-US members? I got an email that sounded like it went to both US and non-US members... that's what I posted from before.

I'll post the full text, for what it's worth (with the part directed at non-US members bolded, below):
Hello [redacted],

We are sorry to announce that due to legal and regulatory pressures, Intrade can no longer allow US residents to participate in our real-money prediction markets.

Effective immediately, US residents can no longer open an Intrade account. Existing US customers are asked to close out all open predictions and request a withdrawal for the final balance of their Intrade accounts before December 23, 2012. Further information on this process can be found HERE. We strongly urge all US customers to read this information immediately and begin the process of closing their accounts.

We understand this announcement may come as a surprise and a disappointment to our US customers, but this in no way signals the end of Intrade in the US. In the near future we'll announce plans for a new exchange model that will allow legal participation from all jurisdictions – including the US. We believe this new model will further enhance Intrade position as the leading prediction market platform for real time probabilities about future events.

For our non-US customers, we will continue to offer real-money prediction markets. In the coming weeks and months we plan to implement a number of improvements to the Intrade website. These include expanding our market categories to include sports, adding more convenient funding options and a new and improved trading interface. We'll keep you posted on these initiatives as they develop.

Kind regards,

Carl Wolfenden
Exchange Operations Manager
Intrade – The Prediction Market

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at November 26, 2012 23:05:52 UTC

bsr
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blazespinnaker wrote:

I don't know their business model exactly but I don't see how it could be a net positive to trade off their large and well-defended US political market customer base to enter a massively competitive market like sports. But who knows.


Super Tuesday 2012 market had 807 unique traders. At 5$ per month per user, that's 4K.

A lot of people I know in the website industry make around 15K per month base salary, and that's before things like health / taxes / overhead / etc. That's probably high for Dublin, but this sure doesn't feel like a cash cow in its current form.

BetFair, however, makes a fair amount:


The online gaming group saw revenues up 13% to £91.6m in the three months to 31 July. UK growth was up 23%.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19554469

My bet is that the revamped UI will probably be pretty mobile focused.


Under the $5 per month revenue model, yes it seems unlikely Intrade is making much. I think they could easily add back a rake against winnings ala every sports book in existence, and no one would complain. It was the old per-transaction fee that was bad. I'd certainly pay more, $60 total to steal right winger money for a year is a laughably small price.

I would guess they have been eyeing European sports revenue for a while and this is an opportunity to clean house and get them set up the way they should be. I can't imagine there's no way to firewall US and non-US markets, it is just probably an expensive / time-consuming IT project that they either couldn't or didn't want to undergo during the 2012 election season. It's also likely that they need the lift from sporting revenue to be able to afford the changes needed to the political betting infrastructure.

From a strategic / business standpoint, the most sensible path for Intrade is probably to build their European business (including sports) for the next couple years, then get US political betting back on line for 2014 or at worst 2016. It's not like they were going to have a huge amount of revenue from US customers in 2013 or 2015 anyway...and 2014 will probably be fairly slow too.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at November 26, 2012 23:08:05 UTC

ChrisVanNiekerk
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Reno, you raised some interesting points. In the old days we also had sports until they branched that out (Tradesports)...

But I liked having the Americans around. The Tea party folks and the Ron Paul supporters certainly provided liquidity and contributed to divergences between this and other prediction markets...

At the same time, many of the Americans actively contributed to the forum. It would really be a pity to see folks like Delphi, Ammoniad, Domer, MMB, WestSayid and others disappear from the radar screen.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 23:07:46 UTC

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