Duncan Hunter gaining traction?

Here are the new Intrade results after the debate.

For the first time there has been a measurable change for DUNCAN HUNTER, doubling in price and showing a major jump embedded in Iowa.Field with a 3.3 point jump.

Duncan Hunter Won the debate. Huckabee Lost.

And, since this is going to be controversial, I will point out that I’ve been logging onto several prior debate threads (on http://www.freerepublic.com ) where I analyzed the changes in Intrade results from the debates, and usually before it was Huckabee who won.

2008 Republican Presidential Nominee
Old Price … New Price… Change

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 41.1 41.1 No chg
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 20.2 21.4 +1.2
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 17.8 18.0 +0.2
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 9.2 9.2 No chg
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 5.0 6.0 +1.0
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.1 5.0 -0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1 0.2 +0.1

Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus

Old Price … New Price … Price Change
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win 72.5 70.8 -1.7
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win 25.1 25.1 No chg
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win 1.5 1.5 No chg
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win 0.4 2.5 +2.1
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win 0.5 1.7 +1.2
REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win 1.1 4.4 +3.3

The smart money really IS on Duncan Hunter.

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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

Sigh.

I don't want to get into the merits on this agian.

I'll just point out that although the price listed (the last price an contract moved at) is 0.2, you can't actually sell at that price because there are 681 orders in line in front of you. I actually own 10 contracts at 0.1 that I would list to sell if there was unreasonable prospect that they would be filled any time soon absent some big event that changes the fundamentals.

Also, there are exactly 0 orders at .1, so if you want to buy there, I'm pretty sure you can get filled.

Percentage changes on these extremes really aren't all that significant.

Just took a look at the GOP Iowa market and saw the field price. I suspect that most of that is accounted for by Ron Paul rather than Duncan Hunter (just look at their respective nominee prices), though that is only marginally more justified on the merits.

I think he will (yes, I am long) because he is a true conservative and Republican with no baggage. He also appeals to moderates. My sense is that the party activists, who will exert strong influence in Iowa, will gravitate towards Hunter.

A lot of people seem to think that Ron Paul will be the pop-up candidate, but I disagree. Paul's supporters are 'black helicopter' types. They won't be able to deliver the bodies to the caucus, and won't know how to operate in a caucus environment, which can be complicated.

I was at the MN State Central meeting last Saturday (another caucus state (Feb 5th). Paul, Hunter, Thompson, Romney and Giuliani were represented. Huck didn't show. My impressions of the candidacies were confirmed by their respective activists.

<<The smart money really IS on Duncan Hunter. >>

LMFAO!

It takes a special kind of delusion to think that Duncan Hunter has a chance in any of this. It's one thing to fantasize about Ron Paul, who also has just about no chance of winning any caucus or primary, but Duncan Hunter? OMFG!!!

I like Hunter. He has some interesting things to say. But he has NO chance. None.

You might want to gauge voter sentiment on sites other than FreeRepublic! lol.

Good luck.

Your post might have some value if you offered something like a ... reason.

cybear wrote:

Your post might have some value if you offered something like a ... reason.

"I think he will (yes, I am long) because he is a true conservative and Republican with no baggage. He also appeals to moderates. My sense is that the party activists, who will exert strong influence in Iowa, will gravitate towards Hunter. "

You're confusing the way YOU think with the way OTHER people will vote. There is absolutely NOTHING to suggest that this will happen. He isn't even a 2nd tier candidate - he's completely off the radar. Moderates in Iowa? WHAT?!? "Party activists will gravitate towards Hunter?" WTF???

Reason? This has nothing to do with reason. You should be handicapping how OTHER people will vote. Period. You are pushing a fantasy scenario, one in which you will profit, but there is no basis for your hopeful outcome.

Hunter has no money, a weak/small organization, and there are no more debates left. He's polling 1% for God's sake! He is OFF THE RADAR! Traction??? What traction???He has about as much traction as summer performance tires on ice!

Really, amigo. You're so far off base here, it's just hard to fathom why you would think something so bizarre.

The best you can hope for is a tiny bump to close out your position for a small loss or breakeven. But I doubt that even that will happen.

Sorry. I know since you're long you don't want to hear what I'm saying, but there it is. Good luck.

<< You're confusing the way YOU think with the way OTHER people will vote. >>

No... I am putting to use many years of political experience AND trading experience. I have traded futures and swaps for a living. You can follow the herd if you like. Thank you in advance for your money.

My political sense is that the activists will be looking for another candidate to pop up once Huckabee has run his course. While he is fine on social issues, his spending and clemency record will (have) kill(ed) him. He is in severe decline even now. My trading sense tells me that the odds are too long on Hunter. More below.

<< There is absolutely NOTHING to suggest that this will happen. He isn't even a 2nd tier candidate - he's completely off the radar. Moderates in Iowa? WHAT?!? "Party activists will gravitate towards Hunter?" WTF??? >>

1> My point about moderates was clear enough. I can't help it if you don't read closely. Moderates matter insofar as activists believe that a candidate can appeal to them. Directly, they don't decide anything, especially in a caucus state. Nevertheless, they do matter indirectly.

2> Who do you think the 'field' represents? In IA, the field is 6. SC=50. NH=20. Florida=18. Nevada=26. Do you 'get it' yet? Have you even looked at the GOP primaries quotations for today? Apparently not. Or, maybe you don't know how to interpret the information.

3> The InTrade odds on Hunter today are 333:1, yesterday 1000:1. That is asinine. At the very worst, they are 50:1. Hell, Rice and Gingrich have shorter odds quoted than Hunter and they aren't even running.

<< Hunter has no money, a weak/small organization... >>

Neither did Clinton in 1992.
He had enough organization to show up in MN last weekend at the GOP state central meeting. Their caucuses aren't until Feb 5th. I know for a fact that his organization has been working in IA. How effectively? We will see.

<< The best you can hope for is a tiny bump to close out your position for a small loss or breakeven. But I doubt that even that will happen. >>

Perhaps you are right. In that case, my small bet will lose. If I am right, however, I will score pretty big. If Hunter merely reaches 10.0, I will multiply my bet by 100 since I bought at 0.1. I will take those odds.

<< He has about as much traction as summer performance tires on ice! >>

You don't drive on ice much, do you.... 'Summer performance tires' are ideal on ice, other than tires with (illegal) studs of course. Snow tires suck on ice.

Twit.

Hate to break it to you, but I've traded futures for a living too. What the hell does that have to do with Duncan Hunter? And to accuse me of "following the herd" when you don't know me or my positions is pretty silly.

You made a statement that Hunter was gaining traction. I don't see it.

You might be right about teh odds being too low on Hunter. That I don't know. If you're the kind of trader to go long at 2 and sell at 4, so be it. Wouldn't illiquidity a big problem with that kind of strategy?

But to suggest he's going to become top tier I think is a pipedream. OCICBW - just my opinion.

If anything - *FRED* is the dark horse in this race.
He is the Reagan conservative. Charismatic. Smart. Tough. And conservative up and down the line.

I agree with you re: Huck. He'll crash very soon. I saw the video tonight of the mother of the murder victim of the parole. Tragic. I think Huck is lousy on MANY levels. Beware teh man who thinks he knows what's right for you - and is willing to use the govt to impose it!

The field in NH is all Paul - not Duncan! I have shorted it.

BTW, insulting me doesn't make your fantasy any more realistic, Mr. Swaps and Futures Trader with years of political experience.

We'll know very soon. I'm sure you'll have no problem admitting I was right if/when that turns out to be the case?

Best of luck to you. I hope you win big. I'm not on the opposite side of your trade, so it really doesnt' matter to me. I'm short NH Paul, and will likely go long Romney and Fred - just not sure about the timing yet.

"You don't drive on ice much, do you.... Summer performance tires' are ideal on ice,"

LMFAO!!!! Okay, that is by far the stupidest thing you have said (and maybe the dumbest thing I have *EVER* read on the Internet).
FYI - I live in the North. Way North. I've driven about 8 months of the year on ice and snow for the past 30 years. SUmmer tires on ice! hehehehehehe. That is FUNNY!!!! Shaking my head in disbelief.

Maybe people like the Hunter contract because it is so cheap, lol!!

Ko, you're an ok guy and because of that I'm inviting you to jump on the RP bandwagon. That +3.3 you quote for the Iowa field is surely RP support, not Hunter support. But nice try.

Cybear... who are you and where did you come from? What on earth do you base your predictions about Hunter on and your assumptions about RP supporters? From redstate and freerepublic?

While I argue that the polls of "likely republican voters" are not very accurate for gaging support for Paul due to the large number of disgruntled first-time voters, democrats, and others that can't be accurately measured, they're more than accurate for gaging Hunter's support. He gets the bread-and-butter GOP vote that can actually be measured by these polls and that vote is not showing itself for him. From usaelectionpolls.com, Hunter's current support goes as follows:

NV: 3%
CA: 3%
TX: 3%
NH: 1.3%
GA: 1%
NY: 1%
OH: 1%
IA: 1%
PA: 1%
SC: 1%
WI: 1%
FL: 1%
MI: 1%

On what real basis can you really conclude that Hunter is "gaining traction"? If anything, he's at the bottom end of an icy hill with his wheels spinning in frustration. Why are we wasting time talking about this? If you want a pro-war, big government republican there are already 7 other choices - Huckabee, Romney, Thompson, McCain, Giuliani, Tancredo, and Brownback... oh wait, Brownback already left the race, maybe it is time for Hunter to follow? If you aren't, at this point in the race, even getting more poll support than Paul it probably is a pretty good time to pack it in. Just my thoughts.

Canadaman << Maybe people like the Hunter contract because it is so cheap, lol!! >>

Well.... yeah. The contract is cheap in comparison to where the odds really should be. My bet is that Hunter will pop at some point.

Canadaman << On what real basis can you really conclude that Hunter is "gaining traction"? >>

Where did I ever say he was? Perhaps you should actually, you know, READ what I posted. This pretty much summarizes my response to the rest of your nonsense.

Anonymous << You made a statement that Hunter was gaining traction. I don't see it. >>

Where did I say he actually was? Nowhere. I said I thought he would be next up after Huck falls apart.

<< And to accuse me of "following the herd" when you don't know me or my positions is pretty silly. >>

I am judging your strategy based on your postings.

<< Wouldn't illiquidity a big problem with that kind of strategy? >>

Not if I am right and there is a massive short covering rally.

<< But to suggest he's going to become top tier I think is a pipedream. >>

Reaching 10.0 is 'top tier'? Can you read? It is pretty obvious I am playing a long odds strategy. All he needs to do is get to second tier for me to win.

<< If anything - *FRED* is the dark horse in this race.
He is the Reagan conservative. Charismatic. Smart. Tough. And conservative up and down the line. >>

I thought so too. He is not 'getting it done'.

Cybear << "You don't drive on ice much, do you.... Summer performance tires' are ideal on ice,"

<< LMFAO!!!! Okay, that is by far the stupidest thing you have said (and maybe the dumbest thing I have *EVER* read on the Internet).
FYI - I live in the North. Way North. I've driven about 8 months of the year on ice and snow for the past 30 years. SUmmer tires on ice! hehehehehehe. That is FUNNY!!!! Shaking my head in disbelief. >>

LOL. Well, 'ideal' is the wrong word. Nevertheless, in the old days, summer tires outperformed snow tires on glare ice, and 'summer performance' tires were the best on ice. In the 70s when I lived in northern MN, I went to watch ice racing several times and that is all they used. Note: they didn't used studs because they chewed up the ice too much. With new materials, that has undoubtedly changed.

Anonymous wrote:

<<The smart money really IS on Duncan Hunter. >>

I like Hunter. He has some interesting things to say. But he has NO chance. None. You might want to gauge voter sentiment on sites other than FreeRepublic! lol. Good luck.

I'm going to break up my response individually because I already posted a response and Intrade claimed I wasn't logged in, even though it shows me logged in.

My response to this gauging voter sentiment is that the analysis was based upon a poll or two that showed Hunter at 4% and it seemed reasonable that the Intrade contract price should be somewhere near 4%. We've had lots of conversations about what goes into the price, available on other threads, and the weighted modifier that's been suggested by others is .65 for this particular element.

Free Republic isn't a gauge of voter sentiment. If it's a gauge of anything it would be the social conservative vote, which heavily favors Thompson right now but in one poll, when the freepers were asked about who they would prefer to vote for if they weren't afraid he'd lose, the ones who chose Hunter over Thompson were 3 to 2.

Anonymous wrote:

<<The smart money really IS on Duncan Hunter. >> LMFAO!

Isn't Anonymous the guy who posted pornographic pictures on the "A Frightening Analysis" and other threads?

http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1086.page

Anonymous wrote:

<<The smart money really IS on Duncan Hunter. >>
It takes a special kind of delusion to think that Duncan Hunter has a chance in any of this.

***It looks like you didn't read the analysis. It was based upon the fact that Hunter has about 4% poll support and that the Intrade contract prices should start reflecting that soon. It happened to Huckabee, Ron Paul, and probably others, so why would Hunter be immune?

It's not based upon Hunter having a crack at the whole ball of wax. The analysis was based on Hunter hitting 4% on Intrade, generating a 40X return on investment. The folks who moved in at 0.1 have already tripled their money.

Anonymous wrote:

It's one thing to fantasize about Ron Paul, who also has just about no chance of winning any caucus or primary, but Duncan Hunter? OMFG!!!

Ron Paul has basically no chance of winning the republican nomination, and yet his contract trades at $8 or so today because of his poll numbers. Huckabee had very little support, and I noticed based upon before & after snapshots of Intrade prices during the debates that he had won at least a couple of debates based upon Objective Intrade results. Then the huckster started to climb in the polls. If it can happen to the Huckster, it can happen to Hunter, who won the last debate based upon the same analysis from Intrade results.

Anonymous wrote:

You're confusing the way YOU think with the way OTHER people will vote. There is absolutely NOTHING to suggest that this will happen. He isn't even a 2nd tier candidate - he's completely off the radar. Moderates in Iowa? WHAT?!? "Party activists will gravitate towards Hunter?" WTF???

I notice that Hunter is the kind of candidate who brings people like you out of the woodwork. I saw it a lot at Free Republic, they try to push him down because he's just a 1%er, but now that he's at 4% they say "ping me when he gets to 6%" and when he does, the bar will be raised again.

Anonymous wrote:

Reason? This has nothing to do with reason. You should be handicapping how OTHER people will vote. Period. You are pushing a fantasy scenario, one in which you will profit, but there is no basis for your hopeful outcome.

It's pretty obvious from your comments that you did not read my analysis, and yet you have an obvious axe to grind against this candidate.

Anonymous wrote:

Hunter has no money, a weak/small organization, and there are no more debates left. He's polling 1% for God's sake! He is OFF THE RADAR! Traction??? What traction???He has about as much traction as summer performance tires on ice!

Really, amigo. You're so far off base here, it's just hard to fathom why you would think something so bizarre.

The best you can hope for is a tiny bump to close out your position for a small loss or breakeven. But I doubt that even that will happen.

Sorry. I know since you're long you don't want to hear what I'm saying, but there it is. Good luck.

Anonymous wrote:

Hunter has no money, a weak/small organization, and there are no more debates left. He's polling 1% for God's sake! He is OFF THE RADAR! Traction??? What traction???He has about as much traction as summer performance tires on ice!

Wrong. He's polling at 4%, and he won the last debate by an objective analysis, the same kind of analysis that showed Huckabee won prior debates and look what happened to him in the polls afterwards. Yet again we see exclamation points and all that, showing that you have strong feelings. Why should you care? It's a way for you to make money. You should be encouraging an irrational exuberance. But your bias gives you away.

Anonymous wrote:

Really, amigo. You're so far off base here, it's just hard to fathom why you would think something so bizarre. The best you can hope for is a tiny bump to close out your position for a small loss or breakeven. But I doubt that even that will happen. Sorry. I know since you're long you don't want to hear what I'm saying, but there it is. Good luck.

As I've stated before, Hunter has his own peanut gallery of naysayers that regularly come out. Kerry had a meteoric rise in the polls at about this time in the race, recovering from 4% against Dean. Hucksterbee rose quickly in the polls after winning debates, so Hunter should see something from having won this last debate.