Erika

Hurricane contract volume has been pretty dead this year. Just calling attention to the new Erika contracts.

Yes there seems more volume in global temperature contract. So .....

Should we have contracts for 2009.globaltemperature.top3 and top10.

Also 2010.GlobalTemperature.record, top3, top5, and top10 ?

MoneyMetalBets wrote:

Hurricane contract volume has been pretty dead this year. Just calling attention to the new Erika contracts.

This isn't really surprising with the total of the buy and sell offers currently at 36 to 174. With that sort of margin why would anyone want to try their luck? If you want more people to trade the hurricane contracts then reduce the margin by putting in more sensible offers. Otherwise look for something with a narrower margin and more trade. If you want to trade weather, I have already suggested the global average temperature contracts. (Currently range is 50 to 56 and 875 traded.) Go on - put your global warming opinions to the test or are you scared to be proved wrong?

Buys totalling 73 to sells totalling 174 is a little better.

But I wonder if a few stats will move the market. Fred is currently at 3-10 and Grace 11-19.9

50 out of last 59 years have at least as many tropical storms form in September as form after 30 September and before December.

40 out of 59 year have at least as many storms form in the period Sept 9 to 30 as form after 30 September and before December.

This year we have had 2 tropical storms in September and none in period after 9 Sept and it looks unlikely there will be any more in September.

There have been 9 years since 1949 without tropical storms after 30 September but many of these year have been active and we have had below average activity so 9 out of 59 (15.25%) would be an underestimate of the probability as the active years are less representative of a more objective probability for this year.

So what do you think is a sensible probability for Fred being the last named storm this year?

I don't think many people will be convinced that 40/59 is the right probability (nor should they be but why?)

How about double the 9/59 estimate = ~ 30% ?

I put up a bunch of new bids and asks. Right now the spread is 10 or less for every named storm.

Chris, I'll sell you as much Fred as you want at 25%.

JohnRemington wrote:

I put up a bunch of new bids and asks. Right now the spread is 10 or less for every named storm.

Chris, I'll sell you as much Fred as you want at 25%.

Huh?

Why would I buy now at 25 or 20 when I could have bought at 10 before I made that post? Isn't it obvious that I am already maxed out and waiting for a more realistic price to sell out at?

Yes, OK it isn't obvious - I might not hold any and just be trying to get a silly high price at which sell. But would I be likely to have and share such stats backing up a high probability if I believed it was a no hope contract? If I was peddling misleading information like the 40/59 this might be the obvious conclusion but I could hardly be expected to have to do more to say that that was wrong/misleading could I?

Yes, OK there are also other possibilities for example that I am trying to provoke comments to try to get any information on what information other people use. But am I giving away more informtion than I am gaining? (Is this the reason these boards are so quiet?)

Look, all I know is, you estimated the probability at 30, and I offered to sell to you at 25. I have no idea why you would estimate 30 and ignore a bid at 10. People use all kinds of trading strategies, so I just threw the offer out.