Palin Resigns!

Her typically baffling reasoning:

Palin added in a statement that she was "determined to take the right path for Alaska even though it is not the easiest path. ... Once I decided not to run for re-election, I also felt that to embrace the conventional lame duck status in this particular climate would just be another dose of politics as usual, something I campaigned against and will always oppose."

What is the real reason? My theories!

1) A genuine need to free up time for her family (particularly with the disabled newborn)
2) To stop the huge money drain that have come with the constant stream of ethics complains (totalling $300,000 in expenses for her so far).
3) To somehow get in a better position to run for president, although typically there's no better way to prepare than being a governer..

Presumably she's doing it to prepare for a 2012 bid. But I can't see it helping. The attack ad writes itself: do you want a President who will quit when the going gets tough?

Exactly. If she is preparing for the 2012 presidential bid, she just shot herself in the foot. She will be portrayed as a quitter. I suspect there is someting else to do this.

I suspect there is something else to this. Maybe something related to an ethics probe of her work as governor?

Wow. I just now (24 hours after the fact) got around to watching the painful video of her announcement. Now, I am one of the many who find her speeches full of empty platitudes (yes, more so than the typical politician's pretty words) and occasionally nonsensical references. And this speech did not disappoint in that respect. But there was something new in this one's style. I have never seen her that nervous and stressed - not even during the VP debate, which should have been the most nerve-inducing moment ever for her.

She is definitely running. Running scared, that is. I go with the federal indictment theories that are going around. She's a definite sell for those with the margin available, even at 9.5. If for some reason the indictment rumors are untrue, she still has the problem that her reputation amongst the media and the Republican political establishment is at an all time low today. And that's saying something. Popular woman or not, her game is in shambles.

The comments from the McCain camp alone were downright vicious. They contained the word "nutty". Not a good start, I don't think.

One reporting of the rumor:

http://www.postchronicle.com/news/original/article_212241812.shtml

Disclaimer: I know nothing about that particular website, but this is popping up in various places. I recall there being some stuff during the campaign about the construction company that renovated the Palin's house possibly getting some favors from her a year ago. Not sure if this is the same one.

FWIW, Palin's attorney is threatening libel suits now for those writing about the rumors.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/07/03/national/a125257D32.DTL&type=politics&tsp=1

"To the extent several websites, most notably liberal Alaska blogger Shannyn Moore, are now claiming as 'fact' that Governor Palin resigned because she is 'under federal investigation' for embezzlement or other criminal wrongdoing, we will be exploring legal options this week to address such defamation," Van Flein said in a statement. "This is to provide notice to Ms. Moore, and those who re-publish the defamation, such as Huffington Post, MSNBC, the New York Times and The Washington Post, that the Palins will not allow them to propagate defamatory material without answering to this in a court of law."

I would love to see all of these liberal rags have to answer for all the bullshit they put Palin through including:

1. Trying to spread rumors that her newly born disabled child was actually her daughters while making fun of the child's disability

2. Calling her a whore because she has 5 children

3. Calling her daughter a whore because she got pregnant

4. Now trying to spread rumors that she stepped down due to ethics issues

It shouldn't be surprising how slimy and trashy they are when you consider the liberal left-wing trash they are trying to attract.

andywend wrote:

1. Trying to spread rumors that her newly born disabled child was actually her daughters while making fun of the child's disability

When you do something highly unconventional (like hide a pregnancy), people assume there is more than meets the eye

andywend wrote:

2. Calling her a whore because she has 5 children

Who called her a whore for having 5 children?

andywend wrote:

3. Calling her daughter a whore because she got pregnant

Again, who called her daughter a whore? What do you think Rush Limbaugh would have said if it had been one of Barack Obama's daughters who had gotten preggers.

andywend wrote:

4. Now trying to spread rumors that she stepped down due to ethics issues

We'll wait and see what happens here.

Andywend,

You are showing signs of desperation and helplessness in your posts. If you continue like this people may begin to count you in the same category as Ko.

So what should be a fair price for Palin 2012?

A fair price or her actual probability of winning, those are not at all the same here. As others have pointed out, shorting into single digits makes no sense this far out, especially w/ out margin linkage. So, although I would put her chances of winning the nomination at around 5%, I wouldn't short her below 15. I am selling some short right now in the high teens and (hopefully) low twenties, but mostly because I expect to be able to cover for a profit relatively quickly when the price settles back to 15 or lower.

Good thing about Palin is that its almost certain she will give it a shot. If you compare that with a Pawlenty or even a Jindal.

If you're so sure, there's a contract for you (trading in the 50s last time I checked, which was a few weeks ago).

Anyway, I think Pawlenty's at least as likely as Palin to run, but do think Jindal will probably hold off.

nah sold my palins 2 days ago for 18. just checking with my fellow intraders how smart that was.

The thing is, I think that Palin will be the first to announce and that will give her a week in the spotlights. Palinmania breaks out and the price jumps to a irrational high.

Anyway, im off gonna buy some Jindal