Angels & Demons

What do you think will be the opening weekend gross for "Angels & Demons"? This one could be hard to guess.

I think it will open between $60M and $65M. I'm looking to get some action.

Below 60M. Maybe even below 55M. I think it has more of a chance to bomb then to even come close to the first films opening weekend. Looks like a horrible movie with nothing going for it.

Glad I got a few shares shorted at 70M.

Hey who's screwing around?

I think there are two opposing factors working on this film.

1. I think it will draw from a larger base than the previous film because it is supposed to be more action/adventure than The Code. This will appeal to a broader audience than the previous film, therefore bringing in more money overall.

However, this brings me to my second point.

2. We are only in week two of Star Trek which is almost definition action/adventure movie, and I think that it will draw a lot of potential moviegoers who will go to see A&D to see Star Trek instead. I think you have two movies that are appealing, at least partially, to the same base of moviegoers.

I am calling this one slightly above 60

Final prediction: under 55M and Star Trek will still be number one for the weekend.

If you think Star Trek is going to be number 1, there are plenty of shares available to short at 40, 45, 50, and 55. Star Trek will make about 40 this week so that means Angels & Demon's is a lock to go under 40.

You might as well short the ~1000 contracts for +40 million at 2, LOL.