TREK

Well that was interesting...

overzealous TREKkie? or perhaps someone with inside info even though the movie doesn't open to the public for another 31 hours.

MoneyMetalBets wrote:

Well that was interesting...

overzealous TREKkie? or perhaps someone with inside info even though the movie doesn't open to the public for another 31 hours.

Somebody desperately wanting to want to get out is my guess.

It just doesn't make any sense.

The volume figures don't correlate with someone who was just trying to get out. This trader more than doubled the volume on some of the contracts, which is more than he would need to do to cover assuming he held every single share to date on a given contract. Plus it's easy enough "to get out" by covering at 70 or 80 on a contract trading at 55...not just buy at 90.

My only other thought was someone's API went wacky, but the buying was too spaced out and deliberate for that to be the case.

The universe of inside information on movie openings is small. Without tipping my hand I'll say I know where to find almost all of the tracking and pre-sales data for free out there, so I doubt the Rogue Trader (to bring back a favorite phrase from the Election Era) is operating on inside info.

I fully expect these trades to stand, as they are "fair" when looked at in the context that this movie very well could open to $80, $90, $100m...unlikely, but distinctly possible.

Unless you guys know differently via having taken the other side of him/them I think the action today was blatant market manipulation.

When I looked at the timing of the trades I saw that purchases were being made on the above $80m contract at higher prices than the purchases that were made a minute or so later on the $70m contract. I think someone thought they could confuse people into thinking they were getting a bargain if they sold a bit people the made up levels.

Yes I know differently and it was not market manipulation. The trader bought most of my progressively higher priced asks on the $70m and $80m, and $90m contracts. I kept raising my prices and he kept buying. The whole episode lasted about 10-15 minutes. I have no idea who it was and am only offering my speculation on this thread.

Recall the Rogue Trader fiasco from the Election season when no one would figure out what it was until Intrade announced it was a 3rd party hedging. This could be the case again today, I don't know. The guy seems to have gone away for now.

Just realized the movie opens on Thursday. It appears Thursday is included in the total.

Only Thursday midnight shows count towards the total weekend box office. Thursday afternoon and evening shows do not, as they count towards Thursday's gross.

In addition, the contract clearly states that this is a Opening Weekend contract that starts on May 8. May 7 shows (other than midnight shows) should not and will not be counted.

dsong wrote:

Only Thursday midnight shows count towards the total weekend box office. Thursday afternoon and evening shows do not, as they count towards Thursday's gross.

In addition, the contract clearly states that this is a Opening Weekend contract that starts on May 8. May 7 shows (other than midnight shows) should not and will not be counted.

Don't be so sure about that dsong.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i4b5caa365ad73b3a5b50408ac136deb6

"Paramount's well-reviewed prequel to the studio's long-running film space-exploration franchise, "Trek" registered an impressive $31 million in estimated domestic boxoffice over a stretched first day of release. The figure includes $7 million in grosses from Thursday night showtimes, which Paramount intends to list as Friday coin in official final data."

I think it's up to the studio whether they count Thursday numbers as part of Friday's numbers or not.

Nielsen appears to be including the Thursday shows. This is dumb. The contracts clearly indicate that it is the weekend beginning May 8th. Midnight shows from May 7 should be included, but that is all. Thursday is not a part of the weekend.

64spush wrote:

Nielsen appears to be including the Thursday shows. This is dumb. The contracts clearly indicate that it is the weekend beginning May 8th. Midnight shows from May 7 should be included, but that is all. Thursday is not a part of the weekend.

I'm just glad I don't have any of that contract but yeah there does seem to be a big misunderstanding. I don't think this is entirely Intrade's fault. Seems very unanticipated.

The thing is the contract explicitly uses Nielsen EDI and at the same time the date of the contract makes it not use midnight showings. I think the only fair thing you can do is just to return everybody's money.

I think Intrade needs to void all the 70 Million contracts.

Edit: I said midnight showing but I meant Thursday showings.

I take back my previous statements, it looks like the weekend with Thursday might be more then 70 Million. I think if that holds true then the contract should definitely expire long.

If it expires below 70 Million for Fri, Sat, and Sun (Excluding Thurs) then I think all contracts should be void.

Edit:

Arcsol wrote:

I take back my previous statements, it looks like the weekend without Thursday Showings might be more then 70 Million. I think if that holds true then the contract should definitely expire long.

If it expires below 70 Million for Fri, Sat, and Sun (Excluding Thurs) then I think all 70 Million contracts should be void.

Arcsol: I don't think it makes sense to let them expire at 100 if the movie earns 70 Mill+, and void them all if the movie earns less than 70 Mill. This does not seem fair at all to the sellers of this contract.

The contract should expire appropriately based on the correct numbers.

64spush wrote:

Arcsol: I don't think it makes sense to let them expire at 100 if the movie earns 70 Mill+, and void them all if the movie earns less than 70 Mill. This does not seem fair at all to the sellers of this contract.

The contract should expire appropriately based on the correct numbers.

The contract conflicts with itself if the weekend number is under 70 and the total given by Nielsen is over 70. What do you do then?

If both the weekend number and the cumulative number is over 70 then the contract conflict doesn't matter anyway.

The buyers can say it is just as unfair that the source used for expiry is saying over 70 Million and Intrade expires it at 0.

The only fair thing to do is to just give everyone involved in the 70 million contract their money back.