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ammoniad
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Yup. Whatever Intrade rolls out for the U.S. won't be real-money.
This just came in an email.

For our non-US customers, we will continue to offer real-money prediction markets.

They're also adding sports markets, etc., which means they're completely abandoning the U.S.:

In the coming weeks and months we plan to implement a number of improvements to the Intrade website. These include expanding our market categories to include sports, adding more convenient funding options and a new and improved trading interface.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 22:12:30 UTC

tothal
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http://www.pli.edu/Content/Faculty/David_Meister/_/N-4oZ1z132x7?ID=PE1019620

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr5930-10

David Meister received his appointment 25 days ago.


----------------------------------------------------

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6423-12


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Dennis Holden
202-418-5088
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nmr123321
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Joined: February 10, 2012 03:42:32 UTC
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ammoniad wrote: Yup. Whatever Intrade rolls out for the U.S. won't be real-money.
This just came in an email.

For our non-US customers, we will continue to offer real-money prediction markets.

They're also adding sports markets, etc., which means they're completely abandoning the U.S.:

In the coming weeks and months we plan to implement a number of improvements to the Intrade website. These include expanding our market categories to include sports, adding more convenient funding options and a new and improved trading interface.


nothing clarified here unfortunately. Wheeler is probably right but i'm still holding out some hope.
bsr
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Joined: December 10, 2011 20:30:18 UTC
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I will count on others to follow up w/ CFTC etc but please lmk if I can help "lobby" at all.

I don't understand this - it seems like the issue cited was with commodity and economic markets, not political ones. Why would they have to shut down the entire US trading operation? There's clearly more going on here. Perhaps this is just a temporary shut down due to being sued and there is going to be a relaunch with clear firewall of US and non-US markets.

I can't see how political betting has anything to do with commodity trading. And it is notably not being specifically mentioned in any of the initial press coverage (rather it is gold pricing, GDP, geopolitical events, etc. being mentioned). Does anyone have more insight?

http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2012/11/26/feds-charge-intrade-with-illegally-allowing-bets

If others get further info from Intrade or other sources please keep us informed.

Bummer.
blazespinnaker
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Maybe they had this in the works all along so the could list Sports, the CFTC just gave them a nice excuse.

It'd be interesting to get some more back story here.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 22:24:15 UTC

nmr123321
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bsr wrote: I will count on others to follow up w/ CFTC etc but please lmk if I can help "lobby" at all.

I don't understand this - it seems like the issue cited was with commodity and economic markets, not political ones. Why would they have to shut down the entire US trading operation? There's clearly more going on here. Perhaps this is just a temporary shut down due to being sued and there is going to be a relaunch with clear firewall of US and non-US markets.

I can't see how political betting has anything to do with commodity trading. And it is notably not being specifically mentioned in any of the initial press coverage (rather it is gold pricing, GDP, geopolitical events, etc. being mentioned). Does anyone have more insight?

http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2012/11/26/feds-charge-intrade-with-illegally-allowing-bets

If others get further info from Intrade or other sources please keep us informed.

Bummer.


This is what i think will happen, that statement by Intrade was so vague though.
ammoniad
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tothal wrote: http://www.pli.edu/Content/Faculty/David_Meister/_/N-4oZ1z132x7?ID=PE1019620
http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr5930-10
David Meister received his appointment 25 days ago.
----------------------------------------------------
http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6423-12
Media Contacts
Dennis Holden
202-418-5088

Wow. So was the lawsuit simply a new bureaucrat's way of putting his stamp on his new job?

There's a smoking gun here that I think some journalists need to pursue.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 22:27:05 UTC

Chris57
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Joined: June 27, 2008 20:52:37 UTC
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I wonder if some form of investment could be jointly held in some way like an investment sharing club so that it doesn't count as contributing 'cash or similar liquid asset' or whatever the appropriate term is to somehow avoid regulation?

Something like putting solar panels on roofs that gets a very good pretty near guaranteed UK inflation linked return would sound distinctly unlike 'real cash' to me.
Domer
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They need to be very explicit about what is going to happen with the Oscar contracts, so I can decide what to do.

These markets are ripe for manipulation by non-Americans if they're going to expire them at market prices on the 23rd.
ChrisVanNiekerk
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Not only a smoking gun... I'm absolutely appalled by this naked power grab. The CFTC failed to protect consumers and taxpayers back in 2008 during the financial crisis because complex financial instruments were not adequately regulated. Now they're going after the small fry on Intrade. Pathetic!!!

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 22:48:16 UTC

bsr
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blazespinnaker wrote: Maybe they had this in the works all along so the could list Sports, the CFTC just gave them a nice excuse.

It'd be interesting to get some more back story here.


I am sure that is part of it. Intrade is not exactly very communicative about its long term strategy or roadmap, so we can't know. Everything is always an abrupt random announcement with them, with no explanation or context.

I don't know their business model exactly but I don't see how it could be a net positive to trade off their large and well-defended US political market customer base to enter a massively competitive market like sports. But who knows.

Either way if they are getting sued it makes sense to close up shop for the time being during a slow period, flush US money out of the system and then rebuild. Hopefully they'll have things back up and running by 2014 midterms.
Zeke
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Before I go, could Intrade please set up a contract on whether David Meister will be gone by December 23?
tothal
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Domer wrote: They need to be very explicit about what is going to happen with the Oscar contracts, so I can decide what to do.

These markets are ripe for manipulation by non-Americans if they're going to expire them at market prices on the 23rd.


I'm wondering the exact same thing. I've sent a request asking if there was something they could do.
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ammoniad
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Domer wrote: They need to be very explicit about what is going to happen with the Oscar contracts, so I can decide what to do.

These markets are ripe for manipulation by non-Americans if they're going to expire them at market prices on the 23rd.

This is true. They really probably should pause all of the markets immediately and expire them at current prices.

I feel awful for anyone who still has substantial money tied up. This is bad.
ammoniad
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It occurs to me, there is probably substantial basis for a countersuit against the CFTC on the grounds of illegally denying Americans the right to use Intrade by overextending their authority and jurisdiction.
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