Thompson is tanking. Why?

Delphi wrote:

This just broke. Hard to imagine it's what the fuss is all about though. Thompson's donor and sort-of adviser has a drug arrest record.

Thompson is still at 7.7, no change since this drug-dealer story broke. And, to point out the obvious, that isn't a sex scandal.

That could be a sign that Thompson's stock already has bad news built into it. Maybe it's time to BUY, hah!

If the LA Times and Larry Flynt are sitting on some scandal that they have uncovered, the chances are 99.9% that its about a republican.

If the LA Times or Larry Flynt found out about a scandal concerning a democrat, they simply would NOT release it.

Tozikio wrote:

Another reason Thompson is tanking, at least on here, is just the massive short interest that has piled up. I mean there are people putting some serious $XXXX figure wagers, and hundreds of lots short on him.

Most contracts just draw 1 to 50 size lot orders. There are some people out there who *really* have no faith in Thompson.

Tozikio, I'm new here and I was wondering if I could ask you a dumb newbie question? I'm sure there are others who are new and have the same question... How do you check to see that there are short-sells "piled up" ??? And how do you go about shorting a candidate. I think Ron Paul is ripe for shorting, as well as McCain.

Just click on the Trade icon. You will see the depth of both bid and asked in the order book, (kind of like NASDAQ Level II access.)

Tozikio wrote:

Just click on the Trade icon. You will see the depth of both bid and asked in the order book, (kind of like NASDAQ Level II access.)

I can see that for current positions, but how can I tell that someone was shorting Thompson in the past? Sorry I wasn't more explicit.

CaliforniaArchitect wrote:

It would be a good thing if we could see how far down that confidence goes. Right now there is no contract for Thompson.Dropout so I sent in a suggestion that such a contract should be offered. It would make the market more efficient.

Note that DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON is a new issue. Now we can see how far down this goes...

Dropouts from 2008 Presidential Race
DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M - - - 0 new

That's some pretty good responsiveness on the part of Intrade!

ko wrote:

Note that DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON is a new issue. Now we can see how far down this goes...

That's some pretty good responsiveness on the part of Intrade!

That is pretty responsive. Now if I could pull some cash together and buy some at 0.1 I'm pretty sure this will go to 10-15 within a week or so, just on rumors alone.

CaliforniaArchitect wrote:

That could be a sign that Thompson's stock already has bad news built into it. Maybe it's time to BUY, hah!

Here's another case in point. His base is supposedly the conservative wing of the party, and he basically flipflopped a nuanced position on Pro-life in an interview with Tim Russert on NBC’s Meet the Press Sunday .

Fred Thompson says "No" to Human Life Amendment
November 4, 2007

http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/263508.aspx

And he's still trading at 8.1, so maybe bad news is built into this position, and maybe DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON is riskier than I first thought.

LOL

Does this sound like someone passionate about winning the Presidency?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/06/wuspols106.xml

Even the website GOPUSA is starting to rip on him.

For Thompson And McCain, It's Too Little Too Late
GOPUSA ^ | November 6, 2007 | By Doug Patton

http://www.gopusa.com/commentary/dpatton/2007/dp_11061.shtml

The technical indicators I find interesting are

Fast stochastic, momentum, RSI, and Bollinger Width

and if I were trying to see where the dip ends, I would say when Bollinger Width gets below 5, which should be pretty soon. Of course, I'm a total newbie and don't know what I'm talking about.

If this whole slide really was due to the rumor pointing to Fred, there would be no real turning around, most likely.

Between the FredFall and the RonPaulMoneyMachine, this has become a fascinating race.

CaliforniaArchitect wrote:

FredFall

AHA!!

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON is trading today at 5%, with an ask of 40%. Soon we should be able to see how far down this confidence goes. Volume is not high.

Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
Dropouts from 2008 Presidential Race
DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 1.0 40.0 5.0 0 0

Thompson GOP Nomination is trading at 5.5%, continuing the FredFall. Volume is still kind of high.

2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 5.7 6.4 5.5 91924 -1.9

Is it time to cash in my Thompson shorts, or ride it out to the bottom? I would definitely be 'cashing in' in doing so actually freed up cash rather than locking more in (I'm short more on Paul and Giuliani). Do I need to get out before he rebounds, or is it safe to sit on it for a while?

I'm new at Intrade so my advice is just conjecture. But I joined to trade the fundamentals and the oddsworthy outcomes. I think some others here are more "swing traders".

I've got Thompson shorts and will probably just ride them close to zero, like my Gore shorts. There could be faster money making opportunities, but I like keeping the contracts that are working for me and thinning out the losers.

That is easier to do with Intrade futures, since they will expire in 3-6 months anyhow. I have trouble in the stock market holding positions much longer than that so I wasn't a good buy-and-holder there.