Gas Oct below $2.50? Why not?

This one could be a photo finish. The national average dropped to $2.78 this morning (down a little over $.04 from yesterday's price. We have 7 days remaining in October. At the current rate, we will hit $2.50 right on the nose on 10/31. 7 days x $.04 per day = total decline of $.28......... Current price of $2.78 - $.28 = $2.50.

The question to ask is whether the rate at which prices are declining is accelerating or not. As cheaper wholesale shipments continue to arrive, I predict an acceleration (i.e. prices may begin to drop by a higher rate more and more each day). I'm short on this market as I believe it is way overvalued.

For those of you who were counting on the OPEC meeting for a price hike, there are two factors to consider:

1) Any supply cut would affect wholesale prices from Nov 1st onward (not prices in Oct.)

- See article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/27347199

2) It appears OPEC is only going to cut production 1.5 million barrels a day (as opposed to the 3 million barrels previously considered). Let's see how oil futures react to the OPEC meeting. Currently, futures are down $3.34. It appears economic gloom is overshaddowing the production cut.

I'm looking for a green light from the rest of you to go short on this market. The current highest bid seems too good to be true if you're looking to short. Someone tell me what I'm missing..............

Yesterday I would have said fair value of the Oct 2.50's was indeed over 90. But today we have a combination of factors. The price dropped 4.1 cents overnight, which puts 2.50 in reach of a linear projection. The Asian markets crumbled overnight and this spilled into the American markets, as we see the DOW down in excess of 300pts. This has caused most traders to shrug off the OPEC cut, and the US Gasoline ETF is trading down more than 7% today. That ETF doesn't always match what happens in the retail market, but it's a good indicator that we still have more room to fall. Fair value of the Oct 2.50's in my estimation is now somewhere between 65 and 75.