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loudnotes
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Joined: January 03, 2008 09:51:35 UTC
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This is very sad news!

Could you please explain why you've decided to close the market to US participants rather than try to fix the CFTC issues?
nmr123321
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Joined: February 10, 2012 03:42:32 UTC
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We understand this announcement may come as a surprise and a disappointment to our US customers, but this in no way signals the end of Intrade in the US. In the near future we’ll announce plans for a new exchange model that will allow legal participation from all jurisdictions – including the US. We believe this new model will further enhance Intrade position as the leading prediction market platform for real time probabilities about future events. We would like to sincerely thank our US customers for their custom, support and loyalty over the years.




If you trust Intrade when they say something like this, i'd say this whole thing is only a bump in the road for American customers and a clear improvement for the rest of us.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at November 26, 2012 21:34:44 UTC

ammoniad
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Joined: June 12, 2011 22:26:57 UTC
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Intrade wrote: We would like to sincerely thank our US customers for their custom, support and loyalty over the years.

This sure sounds like they're not expecting us back.
...which makes sense, if their "new model" will be play-money-only.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 21:38:51 UTC

BenUffindell
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Joined: March 07, 2012 22:15:01 UTC
Messages: 14
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Wow.

No wonder you guys have been absent for so long. This must be gut-wrenching; I certainly know it will be for all U.S. customers involved.

I suppose it's high time that I admitted to not being an American, for which I am now somewhat thankful.

In light of this, I'll probably be taking a withdrawal in the next few days and hanging back to see how everything pans out. But I do intend to be back; a platform like this is simply too valuable a thing to give up on, and I hope that Intrade can make it work for everyone in the future.

Just one thing: I hope Intrade understands that - while a lot of us may not be U.S. Citizens - we do actually come here to bet on U.S. politics, because, for some absurd reason, it's the thing that we know most about. I'm not sure if I speak for everyone on this matter, but I am keen to continue betting on U.S. primaries and races at every level; from House and Senate seats through to Governor's races and, of course, the 2016 primaries.

I'd hate those markets to disappear just because U.S. customers will be gone.

In any case, Intrade, I thank you for all the work you've put in over the years, and I hope to continue supporting you in these reasonably uncertain times. I'm really sorry to hear you've had to make this decision.
mbb
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Joined: August 09, 2009 15:01:48 UTC
Messages: 139
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Anyone who wants to unwind a large position, I can help you do so.

PM me the market and the approximate size (no need to give me the direction beforehand obviously), and I can show you a quote if there's mutual interest.

Good luck!
nmr123321
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Joined: February 10, 2012 03:42:32 UTC
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ammoniad wrote:
Intrade wrote: We would like to sincerely thank our US customers for their custom, support and loyalty over the years.

This sure sounds like they're not expecting us back.
...which makes sense, if their "new model" will be play-money-only.




that would make zero sense since US customers can still trade with play money, why would they need a new model or exchange for that?

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 21:48:08 UTC

ammoniad
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Joined: June 12, 2011 22:26:57 UTC
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nmr123321 wrote:
ammoniad wrote:
Intrade wrote: We would like to sincerely thank our US customers for their custom, support and loyalty over the years.

This sure sounds like they're not expecting us back.
...which makes sense, if their "new model" will be play-money-only.

that would make zero sense since US customers can still trade with play money, why would they need a new model or exchange for that?

I hope you're right. I guess we'll see.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 21:50:21 UTC

Supak
Director
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Joined: December 25, 2011 21:40:53 UTC
Messages: 526
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So, Willard Romney gets to keep his offshore accounts, but we little guys who like to gamble can't?

Nice. I'm very curious what this "pressure" is, exactly. Some American Casino owners who are sad to see their poker players staying home? Some important Republicans who lost a lot of money and want to put an end to it (less money in GOP pockets means less fundraising for them)?

And, what exactly is "fair market value" if we let Intrade do the unwinding? There just isn't enough volume in most of the climate markets to even attempt to do it myself.


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Tycho11
Newbie

Joined: July 20, 2012 17:48:45 UTC
Messages: 4
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The pressure is that the CFTC filed a lawsuit against Intrade

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveschaefer/2012/11/26/cftc-takes-aim-at-intrade-files-suit-going-after-prediction-market/

The Commodities Futures Trading Commission filed a civil complaint in district court in Washington D.C. Monday, charging Intrade and its parent company, Trade Exchange Network, both based in Dublin, Ireland, with violating a ban on off-exchange options trading.
Wheeler
Director
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Joined: June 22, 2011 03:33:08 UTC
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I wouldn't be surprised if they're going to try to make the non-cash market into Intrade's premiere product. Get a new interface, social networking integration, a way to compete with your friends by betting on sports, politics, whatever. They can have badges, medals, all sorts of in-system awards to allow people to feel like they've accomplished something and show off to their friends.

It sounds like a completely boring waste of time to me, but stupider ways to waste time have been profitable on the internet. It may be that Intrade as it is is simply not that profitable, and they can't wait around for the US to allow customers to make cash deposit, which is ultimately necessary for this business to scale into anything other than a small-time project.
blazespinnaker
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Joined: August 23, 2008 22:13:41 UTC
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Makes perfect sense. Little awkward on the unwinding though.
ammoniad
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Joined: June 12, 2011 22:26:57 UTC
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Wheeler wrote: I wouldn't be surprised if they're going to try to make the non-cash market into Intrade's premiere product. Get a new interface, social networking integration, a way to compete with your friends by betting on sports, politics, whatever. They can have badges, medals, all sorts of in-system awards to allow people to feel like they've accomplished something and show off to their friends.

It sounds like a completely boring waste of time to me, but stupider ways to waste time have been profitable on the internet. It may be that Intrade as it is is simply not that profitable, and they can't wait around for the US to allow customers to make cash deposit, which is ultimately necessary for this business to scale into anything other than a small-time project.


I think Wheeler is exactly right, on every part.

...which makes me sad, because there's no way I'm going to bother with it if I can't make money.
But I think Wheeler's right; even though I (and most of us, I'd guess) won't bother with it if we can't make money, it's possible that plenty of other folks will. Hell, Wheeler's explanation above is the entire reason for being for FourSquare, Klout, etc.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at November 26, 2012 22:01:18 UTC

nmr123321
Senior

Joined: February 10, 2012 03:42:32 UTC
Messages: 294
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Wheeler wrote: I wouldn't be surprised if they're going to try to make the non-cash market into Intrade's premiere product. Get a new interface, social networking integration, a way to compete with your friends by betting on sports, politics, whatever. They can have badges, medals, all sorts of in-system awards to allow people to feel like they've accomplished something and show off to their friends.

It sounds like a completely boring waste of time to me, but stupider ways to waste time have been profitable on the internet. It may be that Intrade as it is is simply not that profitable, and they can't wait around for the US to allow customers to make cash deposit, which is ultimately necessary for this business to scale into anything other than a small-time project.




that makes a ton of sense, but wow, how lame would that be

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at November 26, 2012 22:04:28 UTC

blazespinnaker
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Joined: August 23, 2008 22:13:41 UTC
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Oh, I think Intrade will do just fine now. In fact, my guess is that it'll start actually making money.
tothal
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Joined: November 01, 2012 22:43:31 UTC
Messages: 95
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http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/banking-financial-institutions/269341-cftc-accuses-intrade-of-allowing-unauthorized-trades

David Meister is the head of CFTC's enforcement commission, I'll try to find an email and phone if there is one so anyone can ask him questions.
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