Thompson is tanking. Why?

Note that OHLC and Candlestick show a major inflexion point on October 28th.

Someone knows something.

Wow! You may really be onto something there. I wonder if it will ever leak out? IF the situation is as suspected, and IF Thompson backed out earlier than the general public suspected (so as to prevent the need for reporting of the story), and IF Thompson threw his support to one of the other candidates, and IF the story WAS widely reported later DESPITE the fact that he bowed out of the race, THEN that could possibly hurt the candidate which Thompson had endorsed.

I think that's a kind of weird thought to throw out to you, but that's just how my brain works sometimes!

DFCSTech wrote:

... and IF Thompson threw his support to one of the other candidates, and IF the story WAS widely reported later DESPITE the fact that he bowed out of the race, THEN that could possibly hurt the candidate which Thompson had endorsed.

I don't see how. When Gary Hart's campaign imploded, it didn't hurt whoever his support fell to.

The only one this can hurt is the one who is the subject of the LATimes spiked story. If it never comes out (doubtful), the rumors alone seem to have made their impact.

The last time we saw a major story spiked was Michael Issikopf's story about an intern in the Clinton White House, and look at the conflagration that started. The editors who held that story didn't want to hurt Clinton. But this story seems to be about a republican, so what would hold the liberal editors at LATimes from holding back? Their job is to sell newspapers, so maybe there's a more optimum time to release the story, right before Christmas or something like that.

Tozikio wrote:

Another reason Thompson is tanking, at least on here, is just the massive short interest that has piled up. I mean there are people putting some serious $XXXX figure wagers, and hundreds of lots short on him.

Most contracts just draw 1 to 50 size lot orders. There are some people out there who *really* have no faith in Thompson.

It would be a good thing if we could see how far down that confidence goes. Right now there is no contract for Thompson.Dropout so I sent in a suggestion that such a contract should be offered. It would make the market more efficient.

Sounds like a good idea to me.

Well darn you guys.

You caused me to stay up till 3 AM scouring the internet and reading about this salacious rumor. I concluded four things:

1. It may or not be true that the LAT has something that they are sitting on. An editor denies it, and some columnist who quizzed him believes the denial is honest.

2. If it's true it is either about a Republican or a Democrat. I guess that leaves out Ralph Nader, Mayor Bloomberg and the new Argentinian president.

3. The Times supposedly has "it" well sourced (ie, the rumor is that the holdup is not a matter of it being a reliable story). So if they have something, they are either holding it back because they sincerely don't know whether it is legitimately newsworthy or will make them look like a tabloid for breaking it -- or, they don't give a rat's behind about that and the holdup is for biased political reasons. If it's the latter they are either holding it up because they are flaming liberals and it is about a Democrat and they just don't want to hurt him/her... or because they are flaming liberals and it is about a Republican and they want to hold it for "maximum impact" time. Needless to say very few internet chatters are giving them the benefit of the doubt that maybe they see it as an immature obsession to always be probing candidates' sex lives.

4. Supposedly Larry Flynt has something on "another Senator" (meaning, after Larry Craig). Given that there are six of them (plus two former senators) running for president it seems to me that could be the same story.

So it's either another Bill dalliance, a Hillary affair with either a woman or a man (or a horse - but it was late by then and I may have wandered onto a page about Catherine the Great), a revival of a John McCain affair story, or some romp involving Rudy in a leather harness with his gay roommates. Chris Dodd's name was brought up but no one seemed interested in going there (how crushing for him if he runs across that).

In other words, I know absolutely nothing. But I've finished liquidating my Hillary just in case (there are faster moving contracts anyhow). Thanks for your attention.

Sorry about the loss of sleep, but WOW; that was one of the most entertaining post I have ever read! I mean, I'm at work right now and had to hit the mute button on my phone so that I could literally LOL!

So, about all we know is that it would be about a Senator.
That would only narrow it down to all of the major Democrat contenders and Thompson and McCain.

This should be rather interesting.

(Senator Biden - HA HA HA!

)

I'm just glad that none of it would hurt my favorite guy. Betcha can't guess who in the world that is.

So the buzz does appear to be about a "senator". But Larry Flynt's story is supposed to be a "sitting senator", and that would leave out Thompson. Either his is not the same story or it is the same story and it's about Hillary. The one about Hillary is that she supposedly is having a lesbian affair with a staffer named Huma Abedin.

But Hillary's numbers on Intrade have not been moving down at all. They stay in high volume and they fluctuate the way a norma frontrunner's numbers do. If Intrade is any indication, the numbers show it to be Thompson. He's had a lot of short calls just before this rumor circulated, he has admitted to a cavalier past attitude and even gets coy about what's happened since he's been married.

That begs the question: How strong of an indicator are the numbers on Intrade?

Hillary knows that sexual politics can bring down a presidency, let alone a candidacy, so it would be odd for her not to be extra careful. Fred's been playing around in Hollywood, where there's a lot of winking & nodding going on with this kind of behavior. He might be an amateur at this compared to Hillary. And LA Times is not known for its investigative excellence -- that would be a huge coup for them to pull in the Hillary story, but probably a drive-by on the Fred story.

http://bigheaddc.com/2007/10/31/la-times-sitting-on-an-explosive-prez-candidate-sex-story/

A major sex scandal story involving one of the leading presidential candidates is believed to be soon published by the LA Times, Big Head DC has learned. Details are slowly trickling in through people who’ve heard about the story, and with Larry Flynt saying he’s set to reveal a “huge” sex scandal story involving a sitting senator in the coming days, the rumors seem to be gathering traction....

Several commenters on Rosenbaum’s article strongly believe that Hillary Clinton will ultimately be revealed as a lesbian, and that the recent GQ story her campaign helped kill by threatening to withhold a Bill Clinton interview may have gone into some shocking details into her sex life.Rumors of a close Hillary relationship with one of her top aides Huma Abedin, shown above, have long been swirling. Hillary has long denied being a lesbian.

By "commenters" on Rosenbaum's column do you mean the anonymous posters following the text? People on the right (and elsewhere) have been speculating on Hillary's sexuality forever; I think it's somewhat of a hobby for them. And to some extent that's a natural consequence of being a strong-willed and outspoken professional woman - it's often a protective reflex for men who are threatened by the emasculating feelings that kind of woman brings up in them. That's not to say it's not possible, but I personally don't think it any more likely for her than the average married woman. And overriding this for this case is that if Hillary is anything at all she is power-driven, and Job 1 right now is getting into the White House. So I agree she'd be extra careful right now. So unless the aide has been with her for many years and this is a new corroboration of an old story, it's not about her. I mainly liquidated because I can make better use of that long money elsewhere.

If it's anyone I kind of lean toward Thompson too. That excruciatingly prolonged drumroll on his jumping into the campaign seemed more than just coyness for buildup's sake to my admittedly untrained eye. It seemed like Frist and the Tennessee crowd were truly twisting his arm at times to get him in. And his uninspired performance so far almost indicates someone who has mixed feelings about campaigning. Could be that there was something lurking in the closet that he was weighing against the possible upside of running for office? It might be the kind of thing he wasn't trusting enough to share with his political benefactors (especially since you never know who might jump ship in the chaos of the campaign if the prospects look brighter elsewhere). For all we know it could be something about Jeri too. Wasn't her signoff on the idea of running reputedly the holdup for awhile? But we just don't know.

Obama has the Kennedy playboy mystique about him, but something tells me it's not him. I don't know if there's any real data out there about relatively affair likelihood for different demographics, but he's got two very young kids...

Delphi wrote:

By "commenters" on Rosenbaum's column do you mean the anonymous posters following the text? ....

Well, no. I'm a newbie and I don't know how to put a box around the relevant excerpt and URL that I was using as an example.

Delphi wrote:

If it's anyone I kind of lean toward Thompson too. ... Could be that there was something lurking in the closet that he was weighing against the possible upside of running for office? It might be the kind of thing he wasn't trusting enough to share with his political benefactors (especially since you never know who might jump ship in the chaos of the campaign if the prospects look brighter elsewhere).

That is an astute observation that I had not thought of.

Another thing I was thinking about was that Thompson did not get any endorsement from the evangelical leaders like James Dobson -- just one from Bauer who is more of a political operative than spiritual leader. There was some kind of brouhaha about an internal email from Dobson discussing Thompson as a candidate that was unflattering. Since the article says that "everyone" in DC knows about it, someone as well-connected as Dobson would have an inside track to that level of information and his actions with respect to Thompson seem... telling.

By the way, Thompson is currently at 7.7 and continuing to free fall.

So, again I wonder, how strong of an indicator are the numbers on Intrade?

Here's where I put the current probabilities.

Hillary: 25%
Thompson: 60%
Someone Else: 10%
Story is Bogus: 5%

The rumor-before-the-story runup is classic because the LA Times is chumming the waters, pre-selling the story. They know what business they are in.

If there is anything to this, they can't wait too long. If the source wants to talk, this will be leaked (or sold) to the tabloids.

I'm now leaning toward this being a "secondary" story. I.e., about one of the candidates' spouses or something way in the past. The rumor goes that it is a well-sourced story, so the holdup isn't validation. I think someone is probably still trying to weigh the relevance and if they will look too tabloid-ish by breaking it as a "story". I also tend to doubt the "everyone knows" angle, since if that were the case it would have been out already on a drudge-like site, even if it were about the Obama's family dog preferring to hump others of its same sex.

Something like a female friend of Hillary's from college coming out about a tryst they once had at Wellsley (story being negotiated with tabloids as we speak - the mainstream papers and even Fox won't touch it because it will make them look too sleazy). Or Jeri Thompson used to be a swinger with her old beau/common-law husband. Or... Obama had an affair early in his marriage, before he entered politics. Something along those lines of relevance/severity.

This just broke. Hard to imagine it's what the fuss is all about though. Thompson's donor and sort-of adviser has a drug arrest record.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/03/AR2007110301153.html?hpid=topnews

CaliforniaArchitect: It would be a good thing if we could see how far down that confidence goes. Right now there is no contract for Thompson.Dropout so I sent in a suggestion that such a contract should be offered. It would make the market more efficient.

DFCSTech wrote:

Sounds like a good idea to me.

There still is no such contract. I don't know how long it usually takes for that kind of contract to show up. Since I'm new here, it is likely that there would probably need to be more participants sending in echoes of the same suggestion before it hits Intrade's radar.