Duncan Hunter gaining traction?

Delphi wrote:

I'm not really complaining, I just don't get it - at all. It doesn't come close to adding up. The rank and file is up in arms over illegal immigration, except... that they aren't. I'm just wondering which information I'm getting is faulty.

Delphi, I don't get it either. The best I can come up with is that the money holders own the process. The money is in the current mainstream media, and they're pushing what they think the republican party should look like from their perspective. The money men within the republican party are very open-borders, pro-Trade-with-anyone-including-overt-enemies-like-China, and they would like to see less taxes and less government interference across the board.

Hunter has powerful enemies, and his friends don't have money.

Does it really make sense that someone like Ron Paul is considered 50 times more likely to be elected than someone like Duncan Hunter? No. But that's what happens when the process is broken and the voice of the rank & file is corralled into the dustbin.

As a republican who wishes Hunter would catch on, it pains me to say that the smart money is on Hillary for this election. A good contract would be whether a third party gets started and gains more than 10% of the vote, like during Ross Perot's and Buchanan's flanking runs. This time around, if it happens, the Republican party will be completely wiped out, like the Whig party during Lincoln's time.

Duncan Hunter's candidacy would not have taken off under a GOP in any form that's taken since the taken since the party emerged on the national stage under Lincoln. Ideological and policy considerations might have sunk his candidacy if it came to that, but he was never going to get the traction necessary for that to be an issue. That's what most intelligent observers expected from the day he announced and why his announcement was mostly greeted with a mixture of yawns and 'is he serious' responses. He is a congressman from southern California without a high national profile and still has lower name recognition than Dennis Kucinich. There's simply no mystery here, issue positions and ideology alone do not a make presidential candidate an Hunter never had the right assets to compete.

GAW838 wrote:

He is a congressman from southern California without a high national profile and still has lower name recognition than Dennis Kucinich. There's simply no mystery here, issue positions and ideology alone do not a make presidential candidate an Hunter never had the right assets to compete.

That about sums it up. No name recognition + "issue positions and ideology alone do not a make presidential candidate."

I suppose this means I'll go fishing on election day.

Actually GAW, I respectfully disagree in insisting that there *was* a mystery here. (Note that I was never arguing that he had the means to get his positions to the public through traditional late-20th century means but rather was wondering why the internet hadn't to some extent circumvented that deficit.) I say *was* because I have answered my own question today. At the risk of oversimplifying the issue, here is my answer:

Voters don't care nearly as much about immigration right now as they do about other issues. Or for that matter - interestingly for our Giuliani debates - "moral/family values". At least, that's what they told the ABC/WaPo poll this past week. It's all about the economy (stupid), health care and Iraq. Immigration might be something they like to grouse about, but they won't vote about it, not this time around. Granted this is "all voters", and the sampling is slightly skewed toward Democratic leaners, probably to better capture the current national mood. But overall people care about as much about immigration as they do the "war on uncontrollable fear" -- which is to say, "not very much". (Sadly, I note that global warming barely registers on this list.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_110407.html

"3. Thinking ahead to the November 2008 presidential election, what is the single most important issue in your choice for president? "

[posting here an edited version of NET for first plus second most important issues -- Delphi]

Iraq/War in Iraq 45

Terrorism/National
security 9

Economy/Jobs 29

Health care 27

Immigration/Illegal
immigration 8

Morals/Family
values 3

Global warming 1

Delphi wrote:

Voters don't care nearly as much about immigration right now as they do about other issues. Or for that matter - interestingly for our Giuliani debates - "moral/family values". At least, that's what they told the ABC/WaPo poll this past week. It's all about the economy (stupid), health care and Iraq. Immigration might be something they like to grouse about, but they won't vote about it, not this time around. ....

"3. Thinking ahead to the November 2008 presidential election, what is the single most important issue in your choice for president? "

Good Find. It seems to make sense. In addition, with such numbers pointing to the anxiety over the war in Iraq, that would also explain Ron Paul's recent money making abilities.

Hunter is at 4% in this Angus-Reid poll, and at least one other poll this week.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

I think immigration is an issue that can kill a candidacy, but can't necessarily launch one.

In part, this is because it is very important to a certain minority of voters who have hard line against what they call amnesty.

If it didn't matter at all, McCain would be doing a lot better.

I don't think that's the whole explanation though. It seems to me, at least this cycle, like issues have not really been important in driving anyone's candidacy, save Ron Paul. Certainly, some issue positions have been a way for candidates to engage with one another and score points, but not really competitive candidate has risen due to his stance on a particular issue.

Moreover, even in an environment where a candidate can ride a single issue to the top, he still needs more stature than Hunter had coming into this campaign. So, I remain unsurprised and don't really see a phenomenon searching for a new explanation so much as a natural consequence of existing assumptions.

Once again, there's a reason Hunter's candidacy was greeted with a combination of yawns and 'really He's running?' responses, most people never took him seriously and for good reason.

GAW838 wrote:

It seems to me, at least this cycle, like issues have not really been important in driving anyone's candidacy

To be honest, I have felt like the Republicans have been dog-paddling the presidency since 1988. Reagan really ran on a set of ideas that stirred people. He could appeal to their patriotism and confidence.

Since then, Willie Horton, Flag Burning, Gays in the Military, Gay Marriage, "Family Values" were the "defining" campaign themes on the Repub side. Reagan had put together a right-leaning coalition of southerners and westerners which was large enough to simply allow "governing from the base" and not bother to reach out or even "think" too much. What the heck was a compassionate conservative or a thousand points of light supposed to be anyway? These were mushy themes.

The candidates seem more pale every cycle, and I think the Republicans have "lost the middle". And that doesn't mean voters are happy with the Dems either. I think that's why the Bloomberg 3rd party contract gets bids in the teens and twenties. Intraders can sense this problem. The ennui of this election is palpable, and people are not ready propel any of the condidates. They're just going to hold their noses again!

Having said that, I know there is complaining every year about the nomination process. Usually the nominee gains some stature after his acceptance speech.

Actually ko, Hunter's been drawing 3-4% in most polls during the past 2-3 weeks, so there's a measurable support out there for him. How he cuts through the busy but low-key media buzz of other second-tier candidates like Huckabee and Paul (although I note that a week ago Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post put Huckabee at #3 ahead of McCain and Thompson) is a bit questionable right now.

Your mention of the Cilizza rankings made me think Huckabee in a slightly new way. He's the one of the 5 legitamate contenders never to have been included in the media consensus's TOP 3, is that good for him or bad.

Good: He's a fresh face and can claim his campaign has been steadily rising, no squandered support.

Bad: He lacks the latent support of a candidate that has temporarily fallen from grace, but has an organization to turn things around (Kerry 2004). I think that case is easier to make for McCain than Thompson, because his early support wasn't as hard as McCain's and probably is unlikely to come back easily because it was based on a sort of none-of-the-above effect that he probably can't recapture.

Delphi wrote:

Actually ko, Hunter's been drawing 3-4% in most polls during the past 2-3 weeks, so there's a measurable support out there for him. How he cuts through the busy but low-key media buzz of other second-tier candidates like Huckabee and Paul (although I note that a week ago Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post put Huckabee at #3 ahead of McCain and Thompson) is a bit questionable right now.

Does anyone follow a strategy where they update their positions according to the latest polls? Maybe my contention that Hunter should be trading at 4% is nonsense, because it's sorta based on that reason.

I also wonder if he hits 5 or 6%, would that be the threshold to see some buy interest? That seems like a wide differential, 0.1 versus 5 or 6%.

If I had the money, that's what I'd be doing.

ko wrote:

I also wonder if he hits 5 or 6%, would that be the threshold to see some buy interest? That seems like a wide differential, 0.1 versus 5 or 6%.

I think the next threshold is the Iowa debates. If Hunter makes it into the debate with 5% polling results, his contracts should start to see a real bump. There might even be a bump just prior to it on the speculation that he does make it.

http://www.iowagop.net/

Republican Party of Iowa to host

presidential debate in DES MOINES

http://www.iowagop.net/shownews.asp?artid=33

Debate to be nationally televised by FOX NEWS CHANNEL

The Republican Party of Iowa announced today that it will hold its presidential debate at Hy-Vee Hall in downtown Des Moines. The event, to be held the evening of December 4, 2007, will be the first debate in Iowa to be televised by FOX News Channel this election season, as well as the first debate sponsored by the Republican Party of Iowa.

Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Ray Hoffmann said, "With the caucuses less than a month away, our December 4 debate will be very telling to Iowans and the nation. We are thrilled to be having this event in central Iowa, and right in downtown Des Moines which will be the epicenter on caucus night."

The debate will be limited to those candidates who have satisfied the following criteria:

1. Announced a formal campaign for President: and

2. Filed the necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission; and

3. Met all U.S. constitutional requirements; and

4. Garnered at least 5% of the national electorate as determined by an average of the most recent national telephone polls of registered voters conducted by non-partisan public opinion polling organizations leading up to the registration deadline as determined by Fox News Channel and the Republican Party of Iowa or garnered an average of at least 5% in the most recent polls of Iowa voters conducted by the American Research Group and the Des Moines Register.

Here's an article I wrote on Free Republic, got quite a bit of play.

(vanity) Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
Self ^ | 11/11/07 | Kevmo
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts?page=1,250

Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo

OK, so you’ve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your “investment”, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. You’re going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
https://www.intrade.com/
Which one do you choose?

Let’s start with the guy who has 3 balls. He’s got courage in spades. He’s engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as “the man who broke the sound barrier”, Chuck Yeager. While they’re campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon… and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and they’ll all look at each other & nod, saying, “this is the guy who should be my president”.

Now let’s cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldn’t be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. It’s interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.

Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldn’t screw up.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunter’s contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922644/posts
At that point, everyone will know he’s at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if they’re still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.

Here’s where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.

2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election

At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.

2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008

The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Fred’s campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.

While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesn’t screw up, Hunter’s supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that he’ll just be himself.

Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284

According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.

That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. That’s where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy they’re fighting for is genuine.

All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then we’ll start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether it’s our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunter’s campaign
http://www.gohunter08.com
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.

And then we’ll see Hunter smile.

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It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM) Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

1 posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:18 AM PST by Kevmo

Hunter's contracts have started to move, now the ask price is doubled.

2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.1 28778 0

Thanks for that interesting article and keen perspective. It does appear that your article was the lever which has helped the Hunter contract get over the coefficient of static friction and his shares are slowly trading.

2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.1 28848 +0.0

It seems like there is a loadup on the Ask side. The last time I looked at the contract there weren't that many contracts up for the asking.

BID
Qty Price
146 0.1

ASK
Price Qty
0.2 381
0.3 555
0.4 300
0.5 152
0.6 150
0.9 100
1.1 50
1.5 30
1.9 50
2.9 50
9.5 100
16.4 100

The followup question now would be, how long is the Hunter contract a bargain? If you think the target trade price is $4, then it wouldn't be really worth the risk at buying in at $3.50.