Search | Recent Topics
Author Message
Mr. Money
Director
[Avatar]

Joined: January 22, 2012 19:53:59 UTC
Messages: 711
Offline

Mississippi:
Newton Leroy Gingrich - 37
Willard "Mittens" Romney - 30
Rick "Frothy" Santorum - 28
Dr. Ron Paul - 5

Alabama:
Rick "Frothy" Santorum - 35
Newton Leroy Gingrich - 33
Willard "Mittens" Romney - 27
Dr. Ron Paul - 5

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at March 13, 2012 04:35:50 UTC

Roestigraben
Director
[Avatar]

Joined: December 07, 2010 13:33:01 UTC
Messages: 526
Offline

I expect Santorum to win Alabama, and Mississippi is a toss-up leaning Gingrich but could easily go to one of the other guys too. Looking at the last few questions in the survey, these people are probably not among the most rational of voters, so I'm not sure how receptive they are towards arguments. But the fact of the matter is that Gingrich has zero of those left to support his candidacy. Romney can campaign on electability, and Santorum can make the case that he's the last chance, however slim, of tripping Romney up. If sticking it to their own party's establishment is more important to them than focusing on Obama, they have to get behind the strongest challenger. A vote for Gingrich, however, accomplishes nothing.
Besides that, there's also a momentum argument to make: Gingrich is stuck in the low teens nationwide with no signs of life, while Santorum is 10 to 20 points ahead and on the uptick in several recent polls. That's a national effect, but something similar is also apparent in the PPP crosstabs: Gingrich's strength in both states is mostly due to core supporters who decided more than a month ago on their candidate (that's also where his lead in early votes comes from). Santorum and Romney are ahead in all other groups in Alabama, and in two of three in Mississippi (Gingrich seems to have received a boost there in the days just before the survey and has a considerable lead in that subsample, but he's trailing badly in the others). While it's nice to be able to fall back on hardcore supporters, I don't think Gingrich will do very well with late deciders. I expect those who aren't strongly bound to their candidate by cultural or regional ties will do the sensible thing and back the nominee or at least his #1 challenger. It's going to be closer than our current prices suggest, and worth the gamble in my opinion.
Mr. Money
Director
[Avatar]

Joined: January 22, 2012 19:53:59 UTC
Messages: 711
Offline

Good post. As far as the momentum is concerned, I don't know if there is so much momentum for Santorum in those states, but it's hard not to think that there's momentum against Mittens.
ranthambhore
Director

Joined: September 04, 2007 14:54:01 UTC
Messages: 806
Offline

Santorum Alabama, Gingrich Mississippi.
Domer
Sage
[Avatar]

Joined: October 25, 2007 07:13:37 UTC
Messages: 1749
Offline

3 predictions in a row for Santorum in Alabama, and yet his price is in the mid-teens. Intriguing....most intriguing.
Strangelove
Director
[Avatar]

Joined: July 05, 2008 02:33:05 UTC
Messages: 903
Offline

I'll play. Gingrich in both.
Roestigraben
Director
[Avatar]

Joined: December 07, 2010 13:33:01 UTC
Messages: 526
Offline

I can only speak for myself, but I simply lack the means to move prices in highly liquid markets, even when I disagree strongly with them. I added a bit to my existing Santorum positions in both after the recent drop, but have now wagered as much as I care to. It's obviously still a risky bet given the close polling, but I think his chances are much better than 17% and 7%.
ChrisVanNiekerk
Sage

Joined: January 26, 2008 19:53:44 UTC
Messages: 2564
Offline

I expect Santorum to win Alabama, and Mississippi is a toss-up leaning Gingrich but could easily go to one of the other guys too. Looking at the last few questions in the survey, these people are probably not among the most rational of voters, so I'm not sure how receptive they are towards arguments. But the fact of the matter is that Gingrich has zero of those left to support his candidacy. Romney can campaign on electability, and Santorum can make the case that he's the last chance, however slim, of tripping Romney up. If sticking it to their own party's establishment is more important to them than focusing on Obama, they have to get behind the strongest challenger. A vote for Gingrich, however, accomplishes nothing.


Roesti, you state that Southern voters may be more susceptible to emotions than rational arguments (to which there may be some truth in my opinion). Then you state that they may chose Santorum based on rational considerations. And the argument isn't convincing. You write that Santorum is the last chance to beat Romney. In fact, however, his chances are no better than that of Gingrich. His campaign has stated that he's hoping for a brokered convention. Moreover, voters have to ask themselves: Can the guy not only beat Romney but can he take on Obama? Newt may not be popular with the establishment but he's a rabble rouser. He's got a populist streak coupled with eloquence and a wealth of ideas. He's capable of adjusting his message to different audiences. Santorum is a dour, pouting, moralizing crusader who wants to revisit long settled social issues and is hell bent on getting the US entangled in further Middle Eastern conflicts. He's completely incapable of reaching out beyond his base of fundamentalist, evangelical Christians who want to spread the gospel at home and abroad. He's got a cap of perhaps 30% in a general election - far lower than any other Republican in the mix. The man is a surefire loser. There is a reason why nobody took notice of him before Iowa.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at March 13, 2012 15:26:42 UTC

Roestigraben
Director
[Avatar]

Joined: December 07, 2010 13:33:01 UTC
Messages: 526
Offline

My position on the electability question remains the same - both Santorum and Gingrich would lead the GOP to a disaster in the fall, with reverberations far beyond the top spot. Maybe there are gradual differences, and Santorum would only cost them the Senate while Gingrich would also return the speaker's gavel to Nancy Pelosi. Interestingly, Santorum's horse-race numbers haven't yet suffered a much as I thought they would after he started holding forth on contraceptives and the role of Satan: he's trailing Obama by an average of 6 points, compared to a disastrous 12 for Gingrich and a manageable 3 for Romney. Again, he ultimately doesn't stand a chance and these numbers would drop even further as soon as the Obama campaign targeted him, but for the moment he's in much better shape than Gingrich.
As for what drives voter's decisions down in the Deep South, my point is that the voters who are inclined to support someone based on a gut feeling and shared background (even if it's just an imagined one) have mostly already done so and committed to Gingrich. Those who remain up for grabs will probably be more amenable to arguments about long-term repercussions and tactical voting, and would hence be more likely to support Romney or Santorum. Apart from that, there'll always be a bunch of low-information voters who just throw their support to the guy who's had the most positive media coverage lately. There's nobody who's enjoying strong momentum at the moment, but if you look at the post-ST articles, Romney is portrayed as inching ever closer to the nomination, while Santorum is viewed as a long-shot but described as the most obvious challenger. Meanwhile, Gingrich's results were accurately described as a disaster, often combined with speculations about the imminent demise of his campaign. My theory is that he's already exhausted the reservoir of people who'd rather stand with a doomed candidate than affect the outcome, and will do badly among the late-deciders. The exit polls should provide some clues about that, even while the actual results will be so close as to not allow an early call.
Paddyboy1
Novice

Joined: December 30, 2011 03:06:25 UTC
Messages: 47
Offline

My vote is for Gingrich to win both primaries today. I find Roestigraben's idea unconvincing. Georgia and South Carolina are the two data points we had, both of them had him 'dead' both had him only offering his 'southernness' and in both primaries he outperformed the polls.

Alabama and Mississippi have outsize Cellphone only households that PPP is missing out on, and I think these are heavily Tea Party. The polls we are seeing with Romney neck and neck are also showing that the likely-voting republican electorate is only 25% tea party.

Georgia exit polls showed that 70% supported the movement. Slightly different question, but I think that the south wants to vote for Gingrich and that he is more viable for late breakers and very early voters than he was a week or two ago.

Gingrich is up 53, Romney 37, Santorum 11 in early voters in Alabama, with only 5% voting. But this is a full 2 point margin that is early banked.

Among tea party voters he is up by only 1% in the polls over Santorum, and they are both 18% over Romney.

So in conclusion I dont think Romney has a chance in Alabama and I give Gingrich the late breaking votes like the other two deep South contests.
MollysDad
Junior

Joined: May 09, 2008 17:34:42 UTC
Messages: 65
Offline

Alabama: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum

Mississippi: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum
ranthambhore
Director

Joined: September 04, 2007 14:54:01 UTC
Messages: 806
Offline

Domer wrote: 3 predictions in a row for Santorum in Alabama, and yet his price is in the mid-teens. Intriguing....most intriguing.


Not sure why a bold, contrarian call by three people (in a market with dozens of traders) is so intriguing.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at March 13, 2012 21:16:18 UTC

speedo
Junior

Joined: January 23, 2008 23:16:13 UTC
Messages: 53
Offline

Any idea why Romney is soaring in Mississippi? (up to 70%)

I think Gingrich wins both but Alabama harder to call... shorted Romney last week in both states but took gains yesterday, thinking about getting back in.
Roestigraben
Director
[Avatar]

Joined: December 07, 2010 13:33:01 UTC
Messages: 526
Offline

People are probably trading on the WaPo exit poll that showed a large degree of voters were, apparently, susceptible to the "electability" argument. While that is obviously good for Romney, I think the data is ambiguous - an electorate comprised of 80% evangelicals, with 75% saying it's important to share the candidate's religious beliefs, is quite a hurdle to overcome even if Gingrich and Santorum split those folks.
andressada
Senior

Joined: November 19, 2011 15:37:29 UTC
Messages: 152
Offline

It's the drudge exit poll that's sending mkt skyrocketing
Go to:   
Powered by JForum 2.1.8 © JForum Team