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wonderer
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Ves wrote:
CNN) -- Ten days ago the vanguard of rebel forces streamed into the Libyan capital. Moammar Gadhafi's forces put up virtually no resistance and it seemed that the end of Libya's six-month conflict was imminent...

Ten days on, the picture is less clear and the future holds many questions. The joy at being liberated from Gadhafi's brutal and capricious rule is still unconfined, especially as residents celebrate the end of Ramadan.

Security in Tripoli has improved, but the humanitarian situation remains precarious, with water shortages especially a problem. The National Transitional Council's political leadership has not installed itself in any organized fashion as a government-in-waiting and there appears little command and control over the disparate groups of fighters consolidating their hold on Tripoli...

While resistance from Gadhafi forces has effectively ended in the capital, it continues elsewhere, with fighting reported in some parts of the country, most notably Gadhafi's home town of Sirte, Sabha and points to the south.

The rebels have given pro-Gadhafi elements in Sirte, about 400 kilometers east of Tripoli, until Saturday to surrender or face attack. "Unfortunately, to preserve blood sometimes you have to shed blood," said the newly appointed deputy prime minister of the NTC, Ali Tarhouni. Sabha, deep in the desert, is an important junction leading to the Algerian and Chadian borders. Another pro-Gadhafi hold-out is Bani Walid, south of Misrata. Royal Air Force jets targeted three command and control buildings there on Monday.

NATO has acknowledged that resistance from Gadhafi forces is not over. "The pro-Gadhafi troops that we see are not in total disarray, they are retreating in an orderly fashion," said NATO spokesman Colonel Roland Lavoie Tuesday. Gadhafi had the ability "to exercise some level of control and command," he said...

The rebel fighters don't exactly march in step. Different groups from different parts of the country patrol different parts of the capital. There is no overall command, despite the appointment of Abdel Hakimal-Hasadi to lead the Tripoli Military Council. Hasadi is also known as Abdelhakim Belhaj, a former jihadist who was an important figure in the militant Libyan Islamic Fighting Group. An effective military leader, Hasadi's past unsettles others in the loose rebel coalition.


http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/09/01/libya.battle.lister.robertson/
(My emphasis.)

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at September 01, 2011 14:11:34 UTC

ranthambhore
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Ves wrote:
CNN. Gadhafi had the ability "to exercise some level of control and command," he said...

The actual contract:
The contract will settle* (expire) at 0 ($0.00) at midnight ET on the date specified in the contract if Muammar al-Gaddafi remains leader of Libya until that time.

The contract according to Ves:
The contract will settle* (expire) at 0 ($0.00) at midnight ET on the date specified in the contract if Muammar al-Gaddafi has the ability to exercise some level of command and control until that time.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at September 01, 2011 15:08:47 UTC

steve
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gusty3 wrote: Liquidity is defintiely going to be reduced as people are put off trading given the way intrade has handled this.


I see no problem whatsoever with the way Intrade handled this contract. In fact my confidence in them is somewhat restored after what I think were big mistakes wthe the Mubarak and the Debt Ceiling contracts.
ranthambhore
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steve wrote: I see no problem whatsoever with the way Intrade handled this contract. In fact my confidence in them is somewhat restored after what I think were big mistakes wthe the Mubarak and the Debt Ceiling contracts.

Totally agree.
Ves
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Joined: March 09, 2011 14:38:30 UTC
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I disagree. Qaddafi is not gone yet. The fighting continues. The rebels do not even claim to be in full physical control of Tripoli:

THE IRISH-LIBYAN who led the main rebel brigade into Tripoli estimates it will take at least six weeks to ensure full control over the city.

Mahdi al-Harati, a teacher of Arabic who lives in Dublin with his Irish-born wife and family, was last week appointed deputy leader of Tripoli’s military council, a body which hopes to merge all rebel units into one national army.

“Most of Tripoli is now under our control, but parts are in chaos. I would say 90 per cent is under control, militarily, and the remainder is made up of pockets of resistance from Gadafy loyalists,” he told The Irish Times . “Every day we work on sweeping the city, area after area.”


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/0829/1224303145675.html

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at September 01, 2011 17:04:04 UTC

Ves
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Carl wrote:

Intrade believes that the situation in Libya clearly indicates Gaddafi is no longer the leader - he has been overthrown from power. The market was settled accordingly.


The former departure contracts on which this contract is based state:

A departure may include (but is not limited to):

- Resignation
- Retirement
- Removal by constitutional process (such as election or impeachment)
- Coup d'etat
- Being forced into exile and replaced by another President


This is the definition of a coup d'etat:

A coup d'état —also known as a coup, putsch, and overthrow—is the sudden, extrajudicial deposition of a government,[1][2][3] usually by a small group of the existing state establishment—typically the military—to replace the deposed government with another body; either civil or military. A coup d'état succeeds if the usurpers establish their dominance when the incumbent government fails to prevent or successfully resist their consolidation of power. If the coup neither fully fails nor achieves overall success, the attempted coup d'etat is likely to lead to a civil war.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_detat

We're still in the midst of a civil war. Qaddafi has been losing, for sure, but his forces have not been decisively defeated and he formally retains his status as leader. His regime hasn't been overthrown yet.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at September 01, 2011 17:31:11 UTC

steve
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Ves. Please stop.
wonderer
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Ves wrote: Qaddafi has been losing, for sure, but his forces have not been decisively defeated
Of course his forces were decisively defeated, in Tripoli. Only Muammar, Saif, and their brainwashed supporters who are cut off from the outside world believe otherwise. And Gaddafi wasn't the formal leader even when the contract started.

I'm not sure where you got your list from, but it seems to have a glaring omission: overthrow by popular revolution.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at September 01, 2011 17:42:02 UTC

wonderer
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Their supplies will run out, but ours will never run out. We will be rewarded by victory. We enjoy the grassroots support. --Muammar Gaddafi

If I correctly recall my Doublespeak 101 course, I'd say this mean Gaddafi's getting low on supplies and quickly losing what remaining support he has.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at September 01, 2011 17:59:48 UTC

ranthambhore
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Ves wrote: The former departure contracts on which this contract is based state:

A departure may include (but is not limited to):

- Resignation
- Retirement
- Removal by constitutional process (such as election or impeachment)
- Coup d'etat
- Being forced into exile and replaced by another President


Ves, repeat after me. But is not limited to. But is not limited to. But is not limited to. But is not...

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at September 01, 2011 18:37:31 UTC

Crystalball
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Haha, what a waste of time to continue this argument.

Intrade has ruled at least 5 days ago! Let it rest!
wonderer
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I'm probably the last to hear the news, but they got him. Good riddance!

http://www.globalpost.com/video/5678826/video-decoding-gaddafis-death-graphic
ChrisVanNiekerk
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I don't think it portends well for a free and democratic Libya that Gaddafi, his son Mutassim, the Libyan defense minister, and a bunch of their bodyguards were captured and then cold-bloodedly killed. Presumably this was done on the orders of the NTC and their backers to avoid a trial in which all of their crimes would have been raised by the defense.

The complete destruction of Sirte by NATO and the rebels with massive civilian losses surpasses anything witnessed in Misrata by far (where only a small portion of the casualties were civilians according to a study by Human Rights Watch in March). This is Gaza and Fallujah revisited and the utter disregard for civilians by NATO and the rebels displays a hypocrisy that has reached galactic proportions.

The destruction of Tarhouna and the forced removal of its citizens as well as the large-scale persecution of black people in Libya, who compose a significant share of the population, also exceeds any repression by Gaddafi's government in recent months. (His government did in fact release all prisoners of the Islamist Fighting Group in February after the revolt began and political exiles were pardoned and allowed to return when the Arab spring started.)

In my opinion, Libya is headed for a prolonged civil war with Islamists and modernists fighting one another and tribal divisions thrown into the mix. There won't be a happy end.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at October 23, 2011 12:20:08 UTC

wonderer
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True, he should not, ideally, have been killed. But I don't blame the captors too much for their hatred and anger. I doubt it was on orders. Let's hope the next year brings peace.
ranthambhore
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ChrisVanNiekerk wrote: In my opinion, Libya is headed for a prolonged civil war with Islamists and modernists fighting one another and tribal divisions thrown into the mix. There won't be a happy end.

Your predictions regarding Libya haven't panned out too well so far Chris, and I believe that you'll be proved wrong again on this one. There will be many setbacks to be sure but Libya is headed for a far more humane and vibrant future than was ever possible under Gaddafi.

Update: Today in Tunisia

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2097589,00.html

And soon in Libya.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at October 24, 2011 00:30:59 UTC

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